Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting
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2018, Vol. 10, No. 2
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Factors Influencing the Dividend Policy of Vietnamese
Enterprises
Dang Ngoc Hung (Corresponding author)
Faculty of Accounting & Auditing, Hanoi University of Industry, Vietnam
E-mail: toketoankinhte@gmail.com
Nguyen Viet Ha
Faculty of Accounting & Auditing, Hanoi University of Industry, Vietnam
Dang Thai Binh
Vietnam Institute for Indian and Southwest Asian Studies
Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS)
Received: August 27, 2018 Accepted: Oct. 5, 2018 Published: December 1, 2018
doi:10.5296/ajfa.v10i2.13651 URL: https://doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v10i2.13651
Abstract
The article explores the factors affecting company’s dividend policy such as profitability, firm
size, financial leverage and growth rate. Data is collected from enterprises listed on the
Vietnam securities market in the period of 2006 - 2017 with 2,150 observations. Using the
Generalized Least Squares (GLS), the authors have identified two factors that have a positive
and significant effect: (i) return on total assets and (ii) firm size. At the same time, research
results also show a negative impact of enterprise’s revenue growth rate on the dividend
payment ratio. In addition, financial leverage has no impact on company’s dividend policy.
Keywords: Dividend policy, GLS model, dividend payout ratio; dividend per share ratio
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1. Introduction
The aim of dividend policy is to allocate retained earnings for reinvestment and dividends for
shareholders. Retained earnings provide investors a source of potential future profit growth
through reinvestment, while dividends provide them a current distribution. It determines how
much the company's after-tax profit will be distributed, how much retained earnings for
reinvestment will be, and how much dividends for shareholders will be. Thus, dividend policy
will affect the share of capital in the capital structure of the business and the cost of capital used
by the business.
The dividend policy plays an important role in business activities and will be affected by many
factors such as profitability, growth rate, firm size, etc. This study focuses on the theories of
factors influencing corporate dividend policy and determines how these factors influence the
dividend payment decisions of joint stock companies that be listed on the stock market of
Vietnam. There have been many studies on the factors influencing the dividend policy in the
world, such as Rozeff (1982), Fama & French (2001), Liu & Hu, (2005), DeAngelo, DeAngelo,
& Stulz (2006), Nizar Al-Malkawi (2007), Ahmed & Javid (2008), Gill, Biger, & Tibrewala
(2010). These studies have some similar results but there are also inconsistent results that need
to be studied. In Vietnam, the research of Vo (2013), T.M.H. Nguyen, Nguyen, & Nguyen
(2014), Dinh & Nguyen (2014), T.N.T. Nguyen & Bui (2018) use different model as well as
the dependent variables so the results of the study are not consistent with each other.
The purpose of this study is to clarify the theoretical basis, determine the factors influencing
dividend policy (measured by Dividend payout ratio, Dividend Per share ratio) based on
empirical research of companies listed in the Vietnam securities market for the period
2006-2017.
2. Theoretical Framework
According to Miller & Modigliani (1961), dividend policy does not affect the value of a
company. The value of a company depends on investment decisions. This conclusion of Miller
& Modigliani (1961) is based on the assumptions of an efficient and perfect capital market.
This research also relies on customer effect arguments to protect its conclusions. Accordingly,
company that change their dividend policy may lose some shareholders because they will move
to another company that have an attractive dividend. Thus, stock prices have fallen temporarily,
but other investors who prefer the new dividend policy will think that the shares of the
company are sold under the price and will buy more shares. Gordon (1963) have a contrast
argument with Miller & Modigliani (1961). He argued that if the assumptions in the M&M
model do not exist, a company's dividend policy becomes more important because it can
impact on company value.
Free cash flow theory assumes that company pay dividends to overcome the representative
matter which stemming from the separation of ownership and control in a large and dispersed
ownership company. In such company, most investors have no ability or incentive to monitor
and control all activities of board management. In that case, managers are motivated to engage
in activities that may not be in the best interests of the investor. M. C. Jensen (1986) argues that
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paying dividends is the way to achieve this goal. Easterbrook (1984) also has the same
argument. According to Jensen (1986), managers have a motivation to expand the company
exceeding the optimal scale because the increased size required to increase resources under
their control.
Miller & Rock (1985) suggested that a sudden change in income had a similar effect on
corporate profits as a sudden change in dividends. They concluded that income, dividends and
donations were closely related. In addition, the current dividend payment trend is the base for
market to provide income in the future. Dividend policy is the base for signaling expected
income in the future.
A lot of research has been done in this field, but there is not a complete answer. A huge
researches have shown that tackling this problem is neither simple nor clear. Dividends which
are still one of the most critical issues in corporate finance need to be researched in many
aspects
3. Literature Review
3.1. Research in developed countries
Rozeff (1982) studied the dividend policy and the relationship of dividend policy and variables
such as beta coefficient, growth rate, and ownership rate. In this research, the data was
collected from 1000 companies in the United States. Results showed that dividend payouts
have the opposite effect with future revenue growth, beta coefficient, and ownership rate. In
addition, the results of this study also show that dividend policy in a company is affected by
investment policy. GR Jensen, Solberg, & Zorn, et.al, (1992) studied the dividend policy in the
US and they concluded that the debt ratio was negatively correlated with the rate of return.
When company has higher debt ratio, which means that the greater the financial risk so that
company usually pays lower dividends.
Fama & French (2001) used the logit model with the dependent variable take value 1 if
companies pay dividends regularly for ordinary shares every years and value 0 if elsewhere.
They point out that the dividends payout ability has positive correlation with firm size,
profitability and has a negative relationship with growth opportunities. DeAngelo et al., (2006)
extend the analysis of Fama & French (2001). They include the life cycle measurement of a
company and found out that the dividend payout ratio has a positive correlation with the rate of
return on book value of common equity and they argue that the rate of return on book value of
common equity is often the most important economic indicator influencing to the trend of
dividends payout.
Gill et al., (2010) measured the effect of several factors on the dividend payout ratio of
companies in the manufacturing and service sectors. In overall sample size, the dividend
payout ratio depends on margin profit, revenue growth rate, debt to equity ratio and taxes. For
service companies, margin profit, revenue growth rate, and debt to equity ratio are factors that
influence the dividend rate of companies. For manufacturing companies, the dividend payout
ratio depends on factors such as margins profit, tax and ratio of market value to book value.
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3.2. Research in developing countries
Pandey (2001) studied the dividend payment behavior of companies in Malaysia. The sample
size was 248 companies from 1993 to 2000. The results show that there is a difference in
dividends payout among sectors in Malaysia. Agricultural and manufacturing companies have
a higher dividends payout ratio because they have limited opportunities to invest and increase
working capital. This research also shows that profitability, company size and investment
opportunities have an influence on dividend policy. A larger company with higher profitability
usually pays higher dividends.
Liu & Hu (2005) studied the dividend policy of companies in China. Samples were randomly
selected with 299 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The results show that dividends
payout ratio in Chinese companies are directly related to the earning per share and total assets
and have a negative relationship with the debt ratio.
Nizar Al-Malkawi (2007) used Tobit model to determine the factors influencing dividend
payout ratio of companies listed on the Jordan Stock Exchange in the period of 1989-2000.
Research shows that the stock ownership ratio between people who work in that company and
state ownership has a great influence on corporate dividend policy. In addition, firm size, the
operating time and profit of the company are also factors that influence the dividends payout
ratio.
Ahmed & Javid (2008) identified the factors affecting the dividend payout ratio of 320
non-financial companies listed on the Stock Exchange Market in Pakistan for the period
2001-2006. Using the Lintner's model (1956), the authors point out that dividend payout ratio
depends on the current EPS and dividend payout ratio in the past. However, dividend payouts
ratio of these companies are more sensitive to EPS than dividend payouts ratio in the past. In
addition, the results of this study also show that companies with high profit and stable EPS
have large free cash flow, so they often pay high dividends. Dividend payout ratio is positively
correlated with the concentration of ownership and liquidity of the market but it is negatively
correlated with the investment opportunity, debt ratio and company size.
Thanatawee (2013) researched dividend policy of companies in Thailand. The study used data
from 287 firms listed on the Thailand stock exchanges market for the period 2002-2008. The
study found that in Thailand, the dividend payout ratio depends on ROE, firm size, and asset
growth rate and financial leverage. He concluded that companies often use bank loans to pay
dividends to shareholders.
3.3. Research in Vietnam
Vo (2013) conducted a study examining the factors influencing the cash dividend payout ratio
with the data of enterprises on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange from 2009 to 2012. Research
shows that factors such as debt ratio, firm size, tangible fixed assets, growth rate and business
risk which have a statistically significant impact on cash dividend payout ratio of companies. In
addition, the author indicates that profitability and liquidity do not affect the company's cash
dividend payout ratio.
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T. M. H. Nguyen et al., (2014) clarified the theories of factors influencing the dividend policy
and determines the effect of these factors on the dividend payment decision. Using the
multivariate regression model with the data of 75 companies listed in Vietnam Stock Market
for the six years’ period from 2007 to 2012, this study shows that profitability, firm size has a
significant impact on dividend payout ratio while the growth rate and financial leverage have a
negligible impact.
T.N.T. Nguyen & Bui (2018) examined the determinants of the dividend policy of
non-financial companies listed on the Vietnam Stock Market for the period 2008-2015 with the
binary dependent variable. This research shows that profitability, the level of money holdings,
the liquidity of stocks and the life cycle of companies play an important role in dividends
policy. In addition, growth opportunities and financial leverage also have an effect on dividend
payments decision. Meanwhile, the other two factors namely the firm size and the risk does not
affect the decision.
With these contradictory research results, it is needed to have an explicitly research based on
empirical results. In Vietnam, although there have been a number of studies on dividend policy
of listed companies in stock market, these research has only provided dividend policy analyzes
and factors affecting dividend policy. This study, on the one hand, provides a more accurate
assessment of the factors that influence the dividend policy of listed companies in stock market
over a long period of time with the dependent variable measured (Dividend payout ratio -
Dividend Per share ratio). Finally, this study will be based on those assessments to suggest
Vietnamese companies to adopt appropriate dividend policy.
4. Models and Research Methods
Studying dividend policy in developing and emerging markets shows that dividend policy in
emerging market companies is similar to that of US companies. Dividends are affected by
profitability, debt ratio, market-to-book ratio (Aivazian, Booth, & Cleary, 2003). Examining
the influencing factors including the effectiveness of business administration, firm size, total
assets growth rate, profitability shows that the higher effectiveness of business administration a
company have, the higher the dividend will be. In addition, the growth rate negative
relationship with the dividend payout ratio.
Profitability: this factor directly affects the company's dividends payment ability (Lintner,
1956). Companies paying high dividend have high profit (Baker & Powell, 2000 and Nizar
Al-Malkawi, 2007). In Vietnam, some studies show that return on total assets (ROA) are
positively affect to the company’s dividend policy (Dinh & Nguyen, 2014). Earning Per Share
(EPS) is one of the factors that have a positive influence on the dividend decision (T.M.H.
Nguyen et al., 2014). Research hypothesis is developed:
H1: Profitability is positively correlated with dividend policy.
Firm size: Large companies have an easy access to capital market and a low cost capital
mobilization because credit institutions believe their repayment capabilities, so it is not
necessary to use internal funds. Thus, firm size has an inversely relation with the level of
internal fund dependence or large company can pay higher dividends (Al-Yahyaee, Pham, &
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Walter, 2006; Al-Shubiri, 2011). Meanwhile, the company size has a positive but
unpredictable relationship (Mitton, 2004). Research hypothesis is developed:
H2: The firm size has a positive relationship with dividend policy.
Financial leverage: Financial leverage represents the level of corporate loan usage. Loans will
cause low dividends payment to maintain a certain amount of capital to meet their debt
obligations and to pay for transaction costs (Rozeff, 1982). The adverse effect of financial
leverage on dividend has been demonstrated in studies such as Mancinelli & Ozkan, (2006),
Ahmed & Javid (2008). G. R. Jensen et al. (1992) studied the dividend policy of companies in
the United States. They concluded that the debt ratio was negatively correlated with dividend
payout ratio. Research hypothesis was developed:
H3: Financial leverage has a negative relationship with dividend policy.
Growth rate: Enterprises with higher growth rates, they will have more investment
opportunities, and the managers tend to favor internal capital to conduct all projects with
positive net present value, so their dividends are usually low. (GR Jensen et al., 1992). This
inverse relationship between growth rate and dividend was demonstrated in the study of Ho
(2003) and Al-Yahyaee et al., (2006). Research hypothesis was developed:
H4: The growth rate has a negative relationship with dividend policy.
Based on the previous study model, the author uses the following model:
Dpayout
it
= β
0
+ β
1
(ROA
it
) + β
2
(SIZE
it
) + β
3
(DLF
it
)+ β
4
(GROW
it
)+ ε
it
DPSR
it
= β
0
+ β
1
(ROA
it
) + β
2
(SIZE
it
) + β
3
(DLF
it
)+ β
4
(GROW
it
)+ ε
it
Table 1. Measurements and expected sign of variables
No
Variables Code Calculation
Expected
sign of
Variable
1 Dividend Payout ratio Dpayout
Dividend per share /Net income
per share
2
Dividend Per share
ratio
DPSR
Dividend per share /
Par value
shares
3 Profitability ROA
Net income/
Average total
assets
(+)
4 Firm Size SIZE Ln (revenue) (+)
5 Financial Leverage DLF Debt / Total Assets (-)
6 Growth rate GROW
(Turnover this period-
Previously Turnover) /
(Previous Turnover)
(-)
Source: Author’s establishment
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The data are collected from companies listed on Ho Chi Minh City stock market for 12 years
(2006-2017) with 2150 observations (unbalanced data) and the regression model is based on
tabular data.
Regression methods include POOL regression methods, Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and
Random Effect Model. After choosing the most appropriate method, the authors conducted a
model selection test and a defect assessment test of the selected model. If the defect is violated,
the author will use the Generalized Least Squares (GLS).
5. Results and Discussion
In the period 2006-2017, the number of enterprises paying cash dividends ranged from 59.9%
to 83%, with an average of 67.6%. Thus, about two-thirds of enterprises pay cash dividends
(Table 2).
Table 2. Number of enterprises paying cash dividends yearly
Year
Enterprise without cash
dividends payment
Enterprise with cash
dividends payment
Total
Quantity Rate (%) Quantity Rate (%)
2006
22 31.4% 48 68.6%
70
2007
17 17.0% 83 83.0%
100
2008
25 20.7% 96 79.3%
121
2009
20 31.3% 44 68.8%
64
2010
18 20.9% 68 79.1%
86
2011
69 29.6% 164 70.4%
233
2012
85 35.7% 153 64.3%
238
2013
81 33.5% 161 66.5%
242
2014
89 35.9% 159 64.1%
248
2015
81 33.2% 163 66.8%
244
2016
83 33.2% 167 66.8%
250
2017
107 42.1% 147 57.9%
254
Total 697 32.4% 1,453 67.6% 2,150
Source: data extracted from financial statements and calculated from Stata 13.0 by author
Table 3 shows that the average dividend payout ratio is 42.72%, which means that enterprises
have used 42.72% of net profit to pay cash dividend. Average dividend payout ratio was
18.72% compared to Dividend Per share ratio, the lowest was 0% and the highest was 660%.
Businesses usually pay cash dividends from 1-2 times a year, but in particular there are
companies paying cash dividends 5 times a year. Average Return On Assets (ROA) is 6.80%.
The logarithm of total revenue (SIZE) is 13.53, average Financial Leverage (DLF) is 47.13%
and average growth rate (GROW) is 32.86%.
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Table 3. Descriptive Statistic for Variables
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Dpayout 2150 0.4272 0.4712 -0.5 6.04
DPSR 2150 0.1243 0.1968 0 6.6
ROA 2150 0.0680 0.0931 -1.72 0.78
SIZE 2150 13.5388 1.3897 8.63 18.32
DLF 2150 0.4713 0.2128 0 1.06
GROW 2150 0.3286 1.3973 -0.99 18.2
Source: data extracted from financial statements and calculated from Stata 13.0 by author
The correlation coefficients matrix among variables is used to analyze and examine the
probability of multicollinearity occurrence. Based on the data on table 4, the likelihood of
multicollinearity in the regression model is small because most of the correlations among
variables are relatively small. None of the cases have the absolute value exceeds 0.6
Table 4. Correlation coefficients matrix
Dpayout DPSR ROA SIZE DLF GROW
Dpayout
1
DPSR
0.4279* 1
ROA
0.1476* 0.4268* 1
SIZE
0.0444* 0.1401* 0.1171* 1
DLF
-0.0694* -0.1365* -0.3758* 0.3227* 1
GROW
-0.0302 -0.0042 0.0951* 0.0986* 0.0021 1
Source: data extracted from financial statements and calculated from Stata 13.0 by author
Based on the regression result (table 5, table 6) with the two dependent variables namely
Dividend payout and Dividend per share ratio to consider and select the appropriate model
among three regression methods, the author use F and Hausman testing. Using the F test, we
see Prob> F = 0.000 <α = 5%, thus with the significance level of 5 we reject H0. It means that
with the data collected, FEM model is appropriate, POOL is inappropriate because of fixed
effects existence in each enterprise over time. After selecting the FEM model instead of the
POOL method, the authors in turn evaluated the existing tabular data based on FEM and REM.
From the FEM and REM results, the Hausman test will be use to compare FEM and REM.
Hausman's test results are presented in Table 5, Table 6, which shows that Prob> chi2 = 0.0000
<5%, thus H
0
hypothesis will be rejected. That is the fixed-effects estimation (FEM) is suitable
than the random effects estimation (REM). However, before analyzing in detail the factors
affecting the dividend policy, the author will use two tests (heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation)
and make necessary corrections to overcome restrictions of the model.
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Table 5. Estimation results with Dividend payout ratio
VIF POOL REM FEM GLS
ROA 1.28 0.273** 0.273** -0.0806 0.681***
SIZE 1.21 0.0190* 0.0190* 0.0211 0.0149*
DLF 1.39 -0.0827 -0.0827 -0.0275 -0.0728
GROW 1.02 -0.00954 -0.00954 -0.00516 -0.0159**
_cons 0.19 0.19 0.162 0.219**
N 2150 2150 2150 2150
R-sq 0.1097 0.1097 0.0017
LM Test
Wald chi2(4)
= 13.52
Wald chi2(4)
= 13.52
Wald chi2(4)
= 56.33
Prob > chi2
= 0.0090
Prob > chi2
= 0.0090
Prob > chi2
= 0.0000
F test
F(4,1890) = 0.58
Prob > F = 0.6801
Hausman test
chi2(4) = 46.45
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000
Wooldridge
test
F( 1, 252) = 4.659
Prob > F = 0.0318
Modified
Wald test
chi2 (256) = 4.6e+06
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000
t statistics in brackets * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01
Source: data extracted from financial statements and calculated from Stata 13.0 by author
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Table 6. Estimation results with dividend per share ratio
VIF POOL REM FEM GLS
ROA 1.48 0.746*** 0.746*** 0.428*** 0.878***
SIZE 1.23 0.0147*** 0.0147*** 0.0168*** 0.0143***
DLF 1.38 0.00126 0.00126 0.129*** -0.0119
GROW 1.02 -0.00674** -0.00674** -0.00513* -0.00755***
_cons -0.124*** -0.124*** -0.191** -0.121***
N 2150 2150 2150 2150
R-sq 0.6161 0.6161
LM test
Wald chi2(4)
= 321.79
Wald chi2(4)
= 321.79
Wald chi2(4)
= 515.41
Prob > chi2
= 0.0000
Prob > chi2
= 0.0000
Prob > chi2
= 0.0000
F test
F(4,1890) = 21.09
Prob > F = 0.0000
Hausman test
chi2(4) = 171.65
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000
Wooldridge
test
F( 1, 252) = 5.582
Prob > F = 0.0189
Modified
Wald test
chi2 (256) = 5.5e+05
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000
t statistics in brackets * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01
Source: data extracted from financial statements and calculated from Stata 13.0 by author
To test whether or not the model has heteroscedasticity, the authors used the Breusch and
Pagan test. Under the assumption H
0
: there is no heteroscedasticity, H
1
: there is
heteroscedasticity. The P-value received is 0.0000 <α (5%), which implies that there is
heteroscedasticity. The Wooldridge test is used to test whether or not the model has
autocorrelation. The value P-value = 0.0000 = 0.05, it means that H
0
is rejected so the model
has autocorrelation. To overcome these problems, GLS method is used. The results presented
in Table 5, Table 6 are the corrected results. Based on Table 8, the results of the study on the
factors influencing the dividend policy.
As a result of the GLS model, the return on asset (ROA) is positively correlated with the
corporate dividend policy and is statistically significant at 1%. That is suitable with the
expected results. This result is consistent with the results of Baker & Powell (2000), Nizar
Al-Malkawi (2007), Nguyen et al. (2014) and T.M. Nguyen et al., (2014).
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Table 7. GLS estimation results
Dividend payout Dividend per share ratio
ROA 0.681*** 0.878***
SIZE 0.0149* 0.0143***
DLF -0.0728 -0.0119
GROW -0.0159** -0.00755***
_cons 0.219** -0.121***
N 2150 2150
R-sq 0.1097 0.6161
t statistics in brackets * p<0.1, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01
Source: data extracted from financial statements and calculated from Stata 13.0 by author
The results show that the firm size is positively correlated with the Dividend per share ratio
(statistically significant at 1%). This result is consistent with the study of Al-Yahyaee et al.,
(2006), Al-Shubiri (2011). When considered the dependent variable, Dividend payout ratio is
positively related to company size, but the statistically significant is 10%.
The financial leverage is inversely related to dividend policy but is not statistically significant.
This is not consistent with the original hypothesis. This finding is not consistent with previous
research of Rozeff (1982), Mancinelli & Ozkan (2006) and Ahmed & Javid (2008).
As expected, regression results show a statistically significant negative relationship between
growth rates and dividend policy. This points to the fact that the demand of capital to finance
growth are increasingly and therefore dividends payment is low. In other words, growth
companies have more investment opportunities, so businesses are more likely to pursue a lower
dividend payout ratio as dividends and investments represent two competing object to use
company’s cash. The results of this study are consistent with the results of Ho (2003) and
Al-Yahyaee et al., (2006).
The results of the regression show that profitability, previous dividend payout ratio, financial
leverage and growth rates have an impact to the dividend policy with statistical significance:
(1) The profitability has a positive impact on the dividend policy of company listed on the
securities market of Vietnam. This may explain that company with good profitability will pay
dividends to shareholders. At the same time, the previous dividend policy has a positive impact
on the dividend policy of the next period, however, the company size does not affect the
dividend policy.
(2) Financial leverage has a negative impact on dividend policy of enterprises listed on the
securities market of Vietnam. This can be explained that the higher the debt rate is higher the
risk. When the cost of capital is high, the business must pay attention to the debt payment rather
than dividends payment.
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6. Conclusions and Recommendations
Dividend policy is one of the three important decisions of financial management. Based on the
results of this study, the authors propose some recommendations:
(i) Investors need to study the financial status of the business as the profitability because it will
affect to the dividends payment of the next period. High debt ratio will negatively affect
dividend payment.
(ii) The manager should have an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of
dividend policy and consider which one will be suitable with the specific characteristics
of company. Most importantly, managers have a clear choice of dividends policy and pursue
that choice. Because, in order to maintain dividend payments, it is imperative for managers to
have a long-term financial and investment strategy, a more responsible for raising capital
efficiency, helping to increase the company value in the long run.
(iii) Enterprises should prioritize stable dividend policy to maintain a certain level of dividends
and increase dividends to a higher level only in the case that the company can achieve a stable
increased profitability and have an ability to increase dividend. Once the dividend has been
increased, company must try to maintain this dividend level until the company sees that there is
no hope to prevent a decline in profitability in the future.
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