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Market Leakage Study
Introduction
Florida has the highest number of large hub airports (4) of any state in the U.S. Florida also has many
commercial service airports (20), which compete for the same potential passengers. There are many
factors that play into the decision-making of passengers, ranging from cost-to-airport proximity to how
direct a flight is. Because of these factors, many smaller commercial airports in Florida experience market
leakage, or a loss of passengers who choose to drive further distances to airports for various reasons,
such as less expensive flights or more convenient flight options. For large airports located in large
metropolitan areas leakage may be a less significant factor because they still carry large numbers of
passengers. Conversely for smaller airports the loss of passengers to larger airports may potentially be
more significant. This analysis looks at tickets purchased in Florida zip codes to see which Florida airports
may lose business due to market leakage. The market leakage study analyzes zip codes from where a
ticket was purchased and subsequently which airport was departed from for that ticket purchase. To
better understand the market leakage findings, key demographic data are presented as part of the market
leakage study.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
VPS is the only commercial service airport in the Crestview-Ft. Walton Beach-Destin MSA. According to
the U.S. Census, an MSA is “a geographic entity based on the concept of a core area with a large
population nucleus, plus adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration
with that core.” Per this definition, looking at population, employment, and other important factors at the
level of an MSA, should prove beneficial in better understanding the area. Data are also analyzed at the
county level where appropriate.
Drive Time and Population Analysis
Figure 8 displays the area around VPS that can
access the airport with a 90-minute or less drive
time. Further, Table 4 displays the population of that
area in 2010 and 2016 as well as a projected
population of the area for 2021 and 2040. The
projected annual rate of change, or growth rate,
between 2016 and 2021 of the population in that area
is 1.24 percent. With this growth rate, this area is
expected to have a 34 percent growth in population
by the year 2040. Therefore, by the year 2040, it is
anticipated that 1,107,988 people will have a 90
minute or less drive time from their homes to VPS.
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U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary – ESRI Housing Profile
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U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary – ESRI Housing Profile
Table 4. Population Within 90 Minutes
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Population Trends
2010 Total Population 768,547
2016 Total Population 823,985
2021 Total Population 876,424
2040 Total Population 1,107,988
2016-2021 Annual Rate of Change 1.24%
2016-2040 Percent Change 34%
Figure 8. 90 Minute Drive Time Area
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