Climate2019,7,122;doi:10.3390/cli7100122 www.mdpi.com/journal/climate
Review
RoleofSocialMediaasaSoftPowerToolinRaising
PublicAwarenessandEngagementinAddressing
ClimateChange
AleksandrinaV.Mavrodieva*,OkkyK.Rachman,VitoB.HarahapandRajibShaw
GraduateSchoolofMediaandGovernance,KeioUniversity,Fujisawa5322,Japan;
[email protected](O.K.R.);[email protected]o.ac.jp(V.B.H.);[email protected]o.ac.jp(R.S.)
* Correspondence:alma[email protected]
Received:20September2019;Accepted:11October2019;Published:16October2019
Abstract:Climatechangehasbeenoneofthemostdebatedtopics inthepastfew decades,buta
numberofchallengeshavehinderedthedevelopmentofrobustpoliciesandstrategiesbynations.
Atthesametime,socialmediaplatforms—suchasInstagram,Twitter,andFacebook—havegiven
the opportunity for the general public
to share opinions and engage with the issue of climate
changelikeneverbefore.Thisphenomenonisconsideredtobeanewformofsoftpowerwhichcan
provide input into the discussion and possibly affect the current international political
mechanisms.Thepresentpaperaimsto(1)definetheforms
andcharacteristicsofsocialmediaasa
soft power method, (2) analyze its influence on the awareness of societies, and (3) assess if
increasedpublicawarenesscouldinfluencethe officialpolitical andpolicyprocesses.Inorder to
assessifsocialmediahasinfluenceonpeople’srelativeawareness,wehavefocusedon
analyzing
the links between a few highly visible climate change related events and the trends in people’s
searches on the Internet in connection to those events. The study finds that even though it is
difficulttoassess the effects of social media as asoftpower tool with certainty, there
are visible
linksbetweensocialmediaandchangingpublicperceptions,withthepossibilityofpublicopinion
influencingpoliticaldecision‐making.
Keywords:climatechange;socialmedia;publicperceptions;softpower
1.Introduction
Climatechangehasbeenoneofthemostdebatedtopicsinthepastfewdecades.Eventhough
the majority of nations now agree on the basic ideas related to climate change and participate
together in international initiatives, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement,
comprehensiveandeffective
stepsareyettobetaken.Thepoliticalprocesshasbeenstagnantand
plaguedbyclaimsofnationalinterest.
Feelingasenseofurgency,anumberofbottom‐upinitiativesaroundtheworldhavetakenthe
initiative in their own hands. The recent few decades have seen a rise in
public figures and pop
culture products focused on raising awareness on climate change through effective campaigns,
using the advances of technology. At the same time, social media platforms—such as Instagram,
Twitter,andFacebook—haveprovidedanopportunityforthegeneralpublictodiscussandshare
opinionsinstantlywithvastcross‐border
networks[1].Thisphenomenonisconsideredtobeanew
form of soft power which can provide input into the discussion on climate change and possibly
affectthecurrentinternationalpoliticalmechanisms.
Several studies have explored the links between social media and public awareness of the
climatechangeissue.Anderson[2]
analyzedtheeffectsofsocialmediaonopinion,knowledge,and
behavior,showingthereissomeevidencethatinformationsharingthroughsocialmediacanraise
Climate2019,7,122 2 of 17
awarenessandencouragemoreenvironmentally‐friendlybehaviorinpeople,butcautioningthatit
canalsoleadtoopinionsilosandopinionreinforcement,whichcouldbebothpositiveandnegative
for theissueofclimatechange. Williams etal.[3] used alarge dataset from Twitter to assess user
attitudestowardsclimate
changeandfoundoutthat groupsareusuallysegregatedinlike‐minded
communities, often on the extreme ends of the support/reject spectrum, with fewer people
expressinglesspolarizedopinions.OtherstudiespaidattentiontosocialmediaframingoftheIPCC
reports,andtothevolumeofclimatechangediscussionson
socialmediaoverall[3],orhavetriedto
understand climate change skepticism in online discussions, such as in blogs [2]. Little research,
however, has beendone on the role ofsocialmedia as atrigger, or a support tool,for bottom‐up
initiatives and the extent to which those are effective
in leading to practical change in policy
developmentandimplementation.
In trying to answer some of these questions, the authors of the current paper took a new
approach, looking at social media as a soft power tool, using the definitions from International
Relationstheory,inordertounderlinethepotential
powerofsocialmediaasadriverofchangein
tacklingthenegativeeffectsofclimatechange.Inthiseffort,wefirstprovideashortoverviewofthe
climatechangenegotiationprocessanditsmisgivings,leadingtothesearchofalternativemethods
by community groups or individuals. We then provide a
definition for soft power and why we
consider socialmedia as a potential soft power tool.Finally,wetryto(1)analyzetheinfluenceof
socialmediaonpublicawareness,and(2)assessifincreasedpublicawarenesscouldinfluencethe
officialpoliticalandpolicyprocesses.Inordertoassessif
mediahasinfluenceonpeople’srelative
awareness, we have focused on analyzing the links between a few highly visible climate change
relatedeventsandthetrendsinpeople’ssearchesontheInternetinconnectiontothoseevents.For
theanalysis,theGoogleTrendstoolhasbeenused,asGoogleiscurrently
theprimarysearchengine
intheworld,havingreached74.54%oftheglobalpopulationin2017andhaving3.5billionsearches
everyday[4].Secondarydatafromarticlesandpublicationsisusedtosupporttheanalysisandto
provideadditionalinformationonthelinksbetweensoftpowermechanismsandsocial
perception.
2.SocialMediaasaSoftPowerTool
2.1.TheClimateChangeNegotiationProcess:AnOverview
In December 2015, 195 nations adopted the first ever global, legally binding agreement on
tacklingthenegativeimpactsofclimatechange—theParisAgreement.Thedealwascelebratedasa
hugesuccesstheworld
over.However,anumberofissueshavedominatedthenegotiationprocess
longbeforeandimmediatelyaftertheagreement.
Atthe1992RioEarthSummit,mostdevelopingnationspromotedtheconceptof“commonbut
differentiated responsibilities” and demanded that there should be no legally‐binding
emission‐reductionquotasfordevelopingcountries.
Seeingdevelopednationsasmaincontributors
ofCO
2emissions,anumberofdevelopingnationsrequiredspecialprovisions,whichdonothinder
their own economic development, urging for developed countries to be the main financial
contributors in climate change programs and initiatives. This concept was kept in the Kyoto
Protocol,adoptedfiveyearslater,in1997,whereindustrializedcountries
werepressedtocurbtheir
carbonemissions,whiledevelopingnationswereprovidedwithcertainincentivestoadvancetheir
climate governance at home. The Kyoto Protocol became an international institutional tool for
bringingstatestogetherandregulatingcollectiveactionbutleftenoughroomfordissatisfactionand
mistrust[5].
The 2008, world
financial crises cooled down the initial push to strike a more compelling
climatedeal,especiallywithChinaandtheUSclashingoveranumberofforeignpolicyissuesand
excusing their inaction in limiting carbon emissions with the other’s inactivity. Consequently,the
2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit failed to deliver a legally
binding emission‐cutting agreement
and only deepened frustrations between developed nations and the fast‐industrializing group of
Brazil,SouthAfrica,India,andChina[5].
Climate2019,7,122 3 of 17
Several rounds of negotiations of varying success followed in the years after 2009
(consecutivelyinCancun,Durban,andDoha)andaGreenClimateFundwasestablishedin2010.A
majorbreakthroughinnegotiations,however,didnotoccurbefore2015whentheParisAgreement
wasadopted.Thetreatywasdescribedasa
“monumentaltriumphforpeopleandourplanet”bythe
thenUNSecretary‐General,BanKi‐moon[6].
The new agreement required from countries to commit to keeping the global temperature
within2degreesfrompre‐industriallevels,ifpossiblecloserto1.5degrees,andforthefirsttimethe
same
efforts were expected from both developing and developed nations [7]. This approach was
morerealisticin vi ew ofbringingnationstogether towardsa common goal, asitalsoallowedfor
domesticdecisionsonhowmucheachcountrycouldcommitthroughmakingvoluntarypledges.As
the pledges are reviewedandcompared
internationallytheintentionhas been thatnationswould
strive to perform better because of the thus formed process of “naming and shaming”. This
approach, however, meant leaving important provisions with unclear scope and the overall
implementation of the treaty to the mercy of individual governments. Even if submitting reports
would become
obligatory to those acceding to the treaty, non‐compliance with the commitments
wouldnotbeabreachofinternationallaw[6].
Sincereachingtheagreementin2015,countrieshavenotbeenabletomakesignificantprogress
on their pledged commitments. A United National Environmental Program (UNEP) Report from
2018revealed
thatcurrentplansbycountrieswillnotreachthegoalofkeepingtemperatureswithin
the2degreesbutinsteadglobaltemperaturewouldriseto3degreesbytheendofthecenturyand
willkeeprisingafterwards.The report prescribedthatto prevent furtherrise, globalemissionsin
2030 will
need to be cut by 25 percent from 2017 levels, which would mean significant efforts in
reductionsfromthenations[7].
2.1.TheRiseofAlternativeMode lsofSoftPowerintheClimateChangeProcess
ThesuccessoftheParisdealwasquicklydiminishedbythedecisionoftheUS
administrationto
pull out of the agreement in 2017. A huge international response followed the announcement,
expressingopposingopinionsandaddingnewlayerstoboththesupportandmistrustintheclimate
change process. However, while governments have been struggling to come together and act in
unison,globalCO
2emissionsincreasedby2percentin2018[8]andatmosphericconcentrationsof
greenhousegashasbeensteadilyontheriseforsevenyearsinarow[9].
Feelingasenseofurgency,aplethoraofbottom‐upinitiativesaroundtheworldhavetakenthe
initiativeintheir own hands.Large
companieshave strived toinvest in low‐carbon solutionsand
have changed their traditional way of work; the public has become more active in scrutinizing
business activities and moredemandingtowards producers,increasingly opting for productsthat
aremanufacturedinamoresustainablemanner.Localauthoritiesatplaceshavealso
steppedinto
supportgreeninitiativesandhavepledgedtofightclimatechangeeffects[6].
Therecentfewdecadeshavealsoseenariseinpublicfiguresandpopcultureproductsfocused
on raising awareness on climate change through effective campaigns, using the advances of
technology. At the sametime,
platforms—such as Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook—have given
theopportunityforthegeneralpublictodiscussandshareopinionsinstantlywithvastcross‐border
networks[1].AsingletweetbyArnoldSchwarzenegger,encouragingpeopletoliveina“smarter,
healthier, more profitable energy future” generated over 125,000 responses [10], exhibiting the
power
ofsocialnetworks.
Whatisevenmoreimpressivehasbeenthemultitudeofinitiativesbyordinarycitizens.On15
March2019,tensofthousandsofyoungpeoplemarchedonthestreetsrequestinggovernmentsand
global leaders to take urgent measures to curb the negative effects of climate change [11]. An
estimated1.6millionstudentsfromapproximately120countriesdecidedtoleaveschoolforadayto
protestagainstpoliticalinaction[12].The“climatestrikers”activitiescaughttheattentionoftheUN
SecretaryGeneralAntonioGuterreswhocalledforaClimateSummitinSeptemberthesameyear.
Asmostofthestudents
wereunderlegalagetovotetheysaworganizingthemselvesandtakingto
thestreetsastheonlyoptiontoraisetheirvoiceandbeheard.Themeansfororganizingthemassive
Climate2019,7,122 4 of 17
worldwide event was through social media. Where those students have received information on
climatechangeandthepoliciesrelatedtoithavetoalargedegreebeenthroughsocialmediaaswell.
Inayearortwotheparticipantsoftheclimatestrikeswillbeofagetogotoelections.
Itisbecoming
moreandmoreapparentthatpositionsofleadersanddecision‐makersonclimatechangewillhave
increasingeffectsonpollresults.
Thisphenomenonisconsideredtobeanewformofsoftpower,whichcanprovideinputinto
the discussion on climate change and potentially affect the
current international political
mechanisms.However,beforeweproceedwithdiscussingthemainquestionsinthisresearch,we
willlookintothedefinitionofsoftpowerandtheimportanceofsocialmediaintheclimatechange
process.
2.2.DefiningSoftPowerandFocusonSocialMedia
• Definition:JosephNye’sconcept
of“softpower”
TheAmericanpoliticalscientistJosephNyeintroducedtheconceptof“softpower”inthelate
1980s, when, along with Robert Keohane, he developed the neoliberal theory andthe concepts of
asymmetrical and complex inter‐relations between the foreign affairs actors. Soft power, as Nye
definedit,is
“theabilitytoinfluencethebehaviorofothers togettheoutcomesyouwant”,which
uses co‐option rather than hard power enforcement. Soft power could be used by nations to
influenceothernations,butalsobyanumberofnon‐stateactors,suchasinternationalorganizations
and institutions. It aims
to shape the preferences of others through employing assets such as
attractiveculturalorpoliticalvalues,oreventhroughpersonalitiesreveredbythepublic[13,14].
EventhoughtheUShasdifficultpoliticalrelationswithanumberofcountries,Americanfilms
andmusicarewidelypopularandnamesofAmericanpopular
figuresareknowntheworldover.
Japan is no longer a leading economic power, yet its culture and history has brought a record
numberof30milliontouristsin2018[15].Internationalaidprovidedbyanumber ofcountriesafter
disasters or conflict have assisted states in creating a more positive
image for themselves (e.g.,
Chinese aid and investments in Africa, US aid in South East Asia) [16]. Large non‐for‐profit
organizationsandthinktanks,suchasAmnestyInternational,havealsousedtheirvastnetworkand
influence to inform the public on pressing human rights issues and to put pressure
on decision
makers.
Focusonsocialmediaasasoftpowertool
Morerecently,withthefastandvastspreadoftheInternettechnologya powerfultoolofsoft
powerhasrisentoprominence—thesocialmedia.Communicationthroughsocialmedia,aswellas
news and opinion articles, is not only
spread extremely quickly, but also extremely cheaply. A
numberofgovernments,fromObamaandTrumptoXiJinping,aswellasnot‐stateactors,suchas
terrorist organizations, areincreasingly turning to social mediato deliver their political messages
andshapepublicopinion[17].Ifsoftpoweristhe“second
faceofpower”asdescribedbyNyeand
mediaisthe“fourthestate”,thensocialmedia,asthenewmasscommunicationplatform,isitsnew
tool.
Inthecurrentpaper,however,wearenotlookingintohowstatesordesignatedorganizations
use the Internet and social mediato influence people’s
opinions, but are instead interested inthe
oppositeprocess—ifabottom‐upapproach,thatis,ifindividualsorcommunitygroups,presumably
not connected to anyspecific political body or fraction, could spark public reactions and increase
awarenesstowardsclimatechange,consequentlyleadingtoactionatthepoliticallevel.
Thetechnological
innovation andthespreadofsocialmediaplatforms haveentirelychanged
the way soft power could be employed. The active public participation in societal and political
discourses via online channels has overtaken the traditional diplomatic sources—“user‐generated
content” outlets, “where ordinary citizens, not government experts” share information and
opinions,hasstarted
todictatesoftpowerdynamics[18].Intheperiodbetween2005and2013,the
percentageofpeopleusingvariousformsofonlinesocialcommunicationintheUnitedStatesgrew
from8%to72%[19]andreached81%by2017[20].ThenumberofInternetusersworldwidein2018
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wasabitover4billionpeople[21].Theexpectationsarethatby2021,therewillbeabout3.02billion
activesocialmediauserspermonthworldwide,withFacebook,Youtube,andWhatsAppbeingthe
topthreesocialmediaplatformsasofJanuary2019[22].
Notonlydousersspendmore
andmoretimecommunicatingthroughsocialnetworks,butan
increasingnumberofpeoplereportthattheyusesocialnetworksasaprimarysourceforreceiving
news.InaPewResearchstudyfrom2012,morethan6in10millennials(61%)intheUSindicated
thattheyuseFacebooktoreceivepolitical
newsandapproximately32%reportedthattheyusethe
platform to share information and opinions about government policy and politics. More
importantly, 25% admitted that they had become more engaged in a given political issue after
readingordiscussingaboutitonsocialmedia[23].AsofMarch2019,Facebook
registeredover2.38
billionmonthlyactiveusers[24]whileTwitterisprojectedtoreach275millionactiveusersin2019
[25],revealingtheenormouspotentialoftheseapplicationstoreachouttoalargeaudienceandto
supportpeopleincreatingnetworks.
Never before has it been easierfor the
wide public to shareits viewson policy decisions. In
many places political decision‐making is closely related to the perceptions, understanding, and
pressure put by the public on the political powers. As wide‐scale activities such as reduction of
carbon emissions and move towards more sustainable energy resources requires the
active
participationbyprivatesectorsandthecommunity,perceptionsofthecausesandconsequencesof
climate change are increasingly important in granting political mandates and forming political
programs[26].
Intherealmofclimatechange,anumberofstudieshavereportedthatthereisalinkbetween
socialmediause
andchangingopinionsontheclimatechangeissue,whichcouldbebothpositive
andnegative[3].Onlineplatformshavebeenusedforraisingawareness,aswellasformobilization
ofvolunteersandmovementsinfavoroftacklingthenegativeeffectsofclimatechange.However,
theeffectsofclimatechangearenot
equallyfeltandrealizedthroughoutthedifferentregionsofthe
world.Formanypeople,theideaandthepossibleconsequencesofpoliticalinactivityisstillarather
abstractconceptatthemoment.Scientificarticlesusingspecificjargonandthefactthatanumberof
academicandscientificresearchisrestricted
andsharedmainlyinthescientificcommunitymakesit
moredifficultforthewiderpublictohaveamorein‐depthunderstandingoftheunderlyingissues
and possible outcomes. Social media, on the other hand, using visual and easy‐to‐understand
messaging, reaches millions of people every hour. Visual representation adds
an additional
persuasivedimension.Themorepeopleseek,clickonandsharesuchinformation,themoresearch
enginesareboundtoshowrelatedtypeofinformation[27].
Socialmediacould,however,beusedjustasmuchfornurturingaskepticalperceptionofthe
climate change process and the human impact
on it [19].As anyone can post content online, it is
extremely easy to spread false or incorrect information andcreate mistrust.Online networks and
informationsharingworkontheprincipleofuserpersonalization,whichmeanspeoplereceiveonly
aselectedandlimitedamountofinformation,basedonuserpreferencesand
usuallysharedbytheir
close contacts. This could lead to forming a more biased perspective or simply to enhancing an
alreadyexistingopinion,ratherthandevelopingmorein‐depthknowledge[28].
As the future of climate action initiatives is closely linked to public opinions and
action/inaction,itis worth trying
to assessto what extendthisstatementis true and what arethe
interdependencies.
3.SocialMediaTrendsAnalysis
StudiesonsocialmediahaveshownthatpublicdiscourseonplatformssuchasFacebookand
Twitterspikearoundcertaineventsornewsarticles.Publicopinionhasfluctuatedthroughoutthe
years, usually
around specificevents, such as the releaseof the AnInconvenientTruth filmin2007
(referringtoclimatechangeasanegativetosociety)[2]andthesocalled‘Climategate’affairin2009,
wheree‐mailsfromtheUniversityofEastAnglia’sClimateResearchUnit(CRU)ledtowidespread
skepticism
aboutthescienceofclimatechangeinthepubliceye.In2004,thereleaseofthefilmThe
DayAfterTomorrow,whereadisasterstrikesasaresultofclimatechange,generated10timesmore
Climate2019,7,122 6 of 17
mediacoverageintheUSthanthe2001reportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,
andwasviewedbyover30millionpeopleintheUSalone[26].
In this section, we will try to analyze public responses to some of the popular figures and
designatedeventswhichhave
sparkedthelargestamountofinterestinclimatechange,inorderto
assessif such interv entions could constitute a positive approach for raisingpublicawarenessand
subsequently for influencingpolicydecision‐making. For thispurpose,we use theGoogleTrends
platform to look at the number of people searching “climate change”
as a keyword in various
platforms,includingnews,images,literature,andvideos.
TheusageofGoogledataisincreasinglybecomingcommonpracticeinquantitativestudiesof
digitalmedia,especiallytogaininsightintohumanbehaviorandsocietaltrends[29].Itisimportant
to note that Google Trends does not provide
the absolute volume of searches. Nonetheless, the
availabledataisstillusefulforthepurposeofhighlightingshort‐termspikesorpatternsinsearches.
The tool has been used in prediction of flu breakouts [30], disease outbreaks [31], to understand
publicinterestinconservationbiology[32],for unemploymenttrends[33],
andforunderstanding
people’sresponsetoextremeweatherevents[34].Furthermore,thefeaturesofGoogleTrendsalso
provide us with the opportunity to examine broader data capture, since it considers multiple
languagesearchescorrelatedwiththesearchedtermforclimatechange,e.g.,‘klimawandel’,‘cambio
climático’,‘changementclimatique’,‘cambiamenticlimatici’.
Bylooking
atFigure 1below,wecanidentifysomespikesandlowsforthe2013–2018period
relatedtothetopicofclimatechangeinGoogle’ssearchengine.Therearevariouseventsandpublic
figurescontributingtothosechanges.Inthispaper,wehavehighlightedseveralinterestingspikes
generatedbysoftpower
methodswhichhavepotentiallyimpactedthelevelofawarenesstowards
theclimatechangeissue.
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Figure1. Relative searches volume (RSV) trendsofthe Google searches for the keyword “Climate
Change” and several identified events in theyear of (a ) 2013–2014; (b) 2015; (c) 2016; (d) 2017; (e)
2018. The y axes are unit‐less and express the relative changes in
search volumes, where 100
represents the week in which the highest absolute number of searches for the search term in the
5‐yearperiodwascarriedout.Thetablein(f)isshowingtherelatedquerieswiththebiggestincrease
in search frequency since the previous period. Results marked
“Breakout” had a tremendous
increase(grewmorethan5000%).Datasources:GoogleTrends(https://www.google .com/trends).
3.1.PublicFigures—LeonardoDiCaprioSpeechattheAcademyAwardsCeremony
On28February2016,LeonardoDiCaprio,whilereceivinghisBestActorawardforthefilmThe
Revenant,gave a memorable speech on thestrong correlation between climatechange and human
activity:
Climate change is real; itishappening right now.
It isthemosturgentthreat facing our
entire species, and we need to work collectively together and stop procrastinating. We
needtosupportleadersaroundtheworldwhodonotspeakforthebigpolluters,butwho
speak for all of humanity, for the indigenous people of the world,
for the billions and
billionsofunderprivilegedpeopleout therewhowouldbemostaffectedbythis.Forour
children’schildren,andforthosepeopleouttherewhosevoiceshavebeendrownedoutby
the politics of greed ... Let us not take this planet for granted. I do not take
tonight for
granted[35].
Thisspeechattractedtheattentionofmillionsofpeopleacrosstheworldtowardstheissueof
climate change. As it can be seen at the graph, there was an increase of 25% (44–55 RSV) in the
relative searches value within the five‐year period relating to
‘climate change’ after DiCaprio’s
speechattheAcademyAwardsevent.AmoredetailedstudybyLeasetal.[35]hasfoundthatone
hourafterDiCapriospoke,searchesincreasedby261%,thedayafterthespeechthevaluesstayedat
78%,andsteadilycrawleddown to39%inthenext4
days.WhencomparedtotheCOPandEarth
Day,thestudyidentifiesthatthesearchesvolumeatthedayofhisacceptancespeechwere3.8and
4.3timeshigherthanthedailyaverageduringthosepreviousevents,respectively[35].
3.2.Films—BeforetheFlood
BeforetheFloodisadocumentaryfilm
aboutclimatechangeproducedbyLeonardoDiCaprioin
cooperationwiththeNationalGeographicchannel. ItpremieredintheTorontoInternationalFilm
FestivalinSeptember2016,wasreleasedintheaterson21October,andairedontheNatGeochannel
on 30 October.The filmshowed a strong commitmentto bringthe
issue of climate change to the
forefrontoftheglobalconversationandaimedtoinspireviewerstotakeaction.Foradocumentary
film,BeforetheFloodmadeanimpressiverecordof60millionviewsworldwideonthemulti‐platform
ofNatGeo network [36].Thedata on Figure 1fshows that the
term ‘Before TheFlood’ is strongly
correlated with the ‘climate change’ search topic (categorized as the >5000% of increase in search
frequency).Itcanalsobeseenfromthecomparisonrecord on the Googlesearchtrends(Figure2)
thatasignificantspikeoccurredatthetimeofthefilmrelease
ontheNatGeonetwork,affectingthe
entiresearchtrendforthe‘climatechange’topic.
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Figure2.ComparisonbetweenRelativeSearchesVolume(RSV)trendsoftheGooglesearchesforthe
keyword ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Before the Flood’. Data sources: Google Trends
(https://www.google.com/trends).
3.3.NewsEngagement—RoleofMediaintheClimateChangeDialogue
As more traditional information outlets, such as newspapers and television channels, are
nowadaysusingsocialmedia tosharecontentwiththeiraudiences,wehaveincludedthoseinthe
analysisaswell.News,bothfromtelevisionornewspapers,aswellasincoming
throughthecurrent
forms of social media, has also played a prominent role in increasing people’s awareness of the
climatechangediscussions[37–39].OneclearexamplecanbeseeninFigures3and4belowwhich
exhibit two data trends from two different platforms, Google and Buzzsumo. The latter platform
records data only from the last 2 years and has been used by other studies to calculate users’
sentiment[40].
Figure3.ComparisonbetweenRelativeSearchesVolume(RSV)trendsoftheGooglesearchesforthe
keyword ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Trump Paris’. Data sources: Google Trends
(https://www.google.com/trends).
Figure 4. The top chart compares the trends of engagement and articles published related with
‘climatechange’topics.Thebottomtableliststhemost
populararticlesonthe‘climatechange’topic
in regard to the highlighted blue‐colore d bar in the upper chart (1 June 2017–30 June 2017). The
number of ‘engagements’is based on the sum of likes,comments, shares, upvotes , attributed to a
Climate2019,7,122 9 of 17
piece of content, a web page, or other web source, on to a social media channel (e.g., Facebook,
Twitter,Pinterest,Reddit).Datasources:BuzzSumo(https://buzzsumo.com).
BothchartsdepictnearlythesameconditioninJune2017,whenpeople’sengagementwiththe
climatechangeissuesoaredsignificantly.Thereareseveralpossibilitiesforthisoccurrence:first,the
United States decision to pull out from the Paris Agreement which attracted enormous public
attention to theclimatechange negotiationprocess;second,
based on NASA’s analysis, June 2017
was considered as the fourth‐warmest June in 137 years of modern record‐keeping, with
temperatureshigherwithatleast0.79°CthaninJune2016[41].Thisphenomenon,alongsidewith
otherclimaticanomalies,triggeredpeople’sattentiontowardstheimpactsofclimatechangeon
their
dailylife.
3.4.People’sClimateMarch—World‐WideActivistEvent
Anexampleforabottom‐upmovementadvocatingforimmediateresponsetoclimatechangeis
theworld‐widecampaign‘People’sClimateMarch’.ThemovementwasstartedbyBillMcKibben,
anauthorandenvironmentalistwhostronglycriticizedworldleaders’inactionin tackling
theissue
[42]. Most of his criticism was in the form ofarticles which spread all around the world through
mediaandtheInternet.Hiscampaignreacheditsmomentumduringthe2014UNCl imateSummit
in New York, when his environmental organization 350.org, along with other 1500 international
organizations, conducted
a march in New York city as a protest against the negligence of world
leaders who had gathered at the summit [43]. After the event, the exposure of People’s Climate
March has increased, as shownin Figure 5.This initiative can be seen as agrass‐roots movement
triggered by one
particular action and campaign, which still continues to engage a multitude of
people from across the world providing them with guidelines on how to organize their own
campaigns,essentiallyusingthetoolsofsoftpower.
Figure5.ComparisonbetweenRelativeSearchesVolume(RSV)trendsoftheGooglesearchesforthe
keyword ‘Climate Change’ and ‘People’s Climate March’. Data sources: Google Trends
(https://www.google.com/trends).
4.Discussion
Thetrendsrepresentedintheprevioussectionshowthatparticulareventsandpublicfigures
can have prominent impact on the dynamics of climate change awareness among Google’s users
aroundtheworld.Itisimportanttomention,however,thatthoseeventsdonotrepresenttheentire
trend of public opinion
and behavior in relation to the climate change discussion among world
citizens.Thus, priorto discussing the relevanceof the findings for soft power diplomacy and our
understandingoftheeffectsofthemethods,weneedtoaddressthelimitationsofourstudy.
First,mostoftheonlinecontenton
theInternetisfilteredforeachindividualbasedonhis/her
personal preferencesandclose group of contacts,whichinturnmayinfluencethewayopinionis
formed and spread. Second, the articles and online commentary could also have negative
connotation and can be easily manipulated, not all content related to climate
change aims at
improvingpoliciesorincreasingawarenessoftheissues.Third,strongdifferencesinInternetusage
existsbetweendemographicgroups,particularlyinrelationtoageandsocio‐economicstatus.
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Moreover,theliteraturereviewonlinksbetweensocialmediaandclimatechangeperceptions
and surveys which are available in English are largely focused on perceptions of the public in
countries—suchastheUS,theUK,Canada,Australia,andsomeEuropeancountries—andarethus
excluding large portions of the world. Lastly, the
information synthesized from Google does not
provideuswithunderstandingoftheindividualpositionsofpeopletowardsclimatechange‐related
policies,whichwouldbebetterassessedthroughothermethodsofdatacollection,suchaspolling,
interviews,andqualitativesurveys.
However,Googlesearchesdatacanbringadvantagesovermoreconventionalsurvey
methods
that may be limited by their infrequency or by the number of participants. Its searchqueries can
providesomeinsightsonusers’behaviorandcanassistinassessingtherelativelevelofawareness
inregardtoanissue.Ideally,thetwotypesofdatacollectionapproachescouldbeused
togetherina
mixed‐method approach to both quantitatively and qualitatively communicate knowledge on
climate change awareness. As technology and the Internet become more available, leveraging
Googlesearchdatato further analyzepublicperceptions could be avaluabletoolalongsideother
methodsofassessingclimatechangeawareness.
Theeventsusedfor
thisresearchexhibitanumberofsimilarities,namely:all of theeventsor
initiatives were promoted by non‐state actors or persons presumably not affiliated with any
governmentalbodies;allhaveusednon‐traditionalsoftpowermethodstopromotetheirideaofthe
importanceoftacklingthenegativeeffectsof
climatechange;allusesocialmediatoattractpeople’s
attention[44].Finally,alloftheactivitiesweresharedwiththepublicinaformwhichisrelatively
easytounderstandandacceptbynon‐experts,andwhichhadacloserelationtopeople’sdailylife
[45,46].Thisapproachisdifferentfrom
thetraditional,moreformal,ormorescientific,negotiation
process[47].
4.1.ImpactonPeople’sPerception
Schafer conducted an extensive literature review of the available studies on online climate
communication between stakeholders and found that online communication and news shared
onlineindeeddo,toacertainlevel,increasethelevelof
awarenessandknowledgeoftheaudience
[48]. A 2009 US General Social survey showed that respondents believed that their general
knowledge on climate change was positively influenced by reading online content, coupled with
newsintraditionalmedia[49].A2011Eurobarometerstudy,conductedamong13,000peoplein12
EU countries indicated
that respondents believedthat information on theInternet improved their
knowledgeofthecausesandconsequencesofclimatechange,andthepossiblewaystotacklethose
[50].
The effects of increased awareness on people’s behavior, however, are less clear. The 2009
studymentionedabovefoundthatpeoplewhoactivelyuse
onlineandsocialmediaforinformation
are also more likely to continue searching climate change related information but that their
intentionstoengageinactualactivitiesarerarelyputintopractice[49].Nonetheless,anotherstudy
indicatedthatintimesofc risis,onlineandsocialmediachannelsmightbeableto
promptthemore
activecitizenstoengageinactualactivities[51].Thecurrentstudyillustratesthatpopula rfiguresor
productsmightalsohavesomesimilareffects.
TheobservedphenomenainSection3ofthispaper:theinfluenceofpublicfiguresasillustrated
byLeonardoDiCaprio’sspeechattheAcademyAwards
ceremony,thesuccessofBeforetheFloodasa
documentary film promoting environmental issues more widely, and using the intense publicity
generated by news related to the world’s current climate change policy processes, indicate that
specificinitiativeswhichareclosertopeople’sdailylifeactivitiescaneffectivelyincreasepeople’s
attentiontowards
thediscussiononclimatechangeandtheinternationalnegotiationprocess.
Studieshaveshownthatinformationsharedbyopinionleaders,suchaspopularfigures,does
havethepotential to shapepublicperceptions.Anderson[2]considers opinionleaderstohavean
important role in influencing public discou rse on climate change, and could
influence consumer
behaviorsandencourageengagementinpolicyprocesses.Suchfigurescoulduseonlinenetworksto
spread ideas on howindividuals couldparticipateindiscussions or mobilize others to build their
Climate2019,7,122 11 of 17
owninitiatives[2].Contemporaryactorsandartists—suchasMarkRuffalo,EmmaThompson,and
RobertRedford—enjoyimmensepopularityandhaveafanbaseofthousandsofpeopleacrossthe
world.Theyhaveusedthispopularitytoshareconcernsontheissueofclimatechangeandtotryto
spark action from both
citizens and policy makers. This means that when such people share
information on socialmedia, thismessage is seen and discussed by millionsof followers [10]. To
neglectthisfactwouldbetoriskmisinterpretinganimportantfactorwhichcaninfluencetheclimate
change discussions, as individuals, communities and political
entities do respond and adapt to
changingpublicperceptions[26].
Leonardo DiCaprio’s and other public figures’ initiatives show that dissemination of
information can take place completely outside the context of a political campaign and may even
producemorepublicengagementthananyplannedevents.Thescientificcommunityisstartingto
discoverthatmessagesfrombottom‐upcommunicationchannels(e.g.,Facebook,Twitter)caneven
surpass,weaken,ordiminishtheproductivenessofplannedmessages[52,53].
TheexperiencefromthereleaseofBeforetheFloodhasprovedthatmomentumforanincreased
public awareness could be built around popular products because audiences are
more likely to
obtain and preserve scientific knowledge when it is translated in easier to understand narrative
setupssuchasdocumentaries[54,55].Discoveringandretainingnewinformationisalsofacilitated
bythefactthatpeoplecanidentifythemselvesinthe charactersoffilm products muchmorethan
withthestatisticsin
ascientificpaper[56].
Pastresearchshowedthataudiencemotivationsheavilyinfluencehowandwhatpeoplelearn
frommedia[57].Messageswhichaffectpeople’semotionsareinternalizedandcanbetransformed
into long‐term memory. A more emotional message processing can encourage responses to the
content [58,59]. By focusing on
these techniques, documentaries have the capacity to attract and
influenceabroaderaudiencethaneitherinformationalorentertainmentmediacoulddoalone.
TheothertypeofsoftpowermethodthathadbeendiscussedinSection3isnewsarticlesasthe
representativeofmainstreammediainshapingpeople’sperceptiontoward
oneparticularissue.Itis
importanttomentionthatmostoftheperceptionsformedbynewsarticlesareoftenindirectandtoa
degree unintended, at times not planed or even foreseen by the media itself [60]. Therefore, the
impactofnewsonpeople’sperceptionsisoftenaresultofpersonal
trusttowardsthespecificmedia
outlet.
4.2.DoPublicPerceptionsAffectPolicyandDecisionMaking?
Dolšak&Houston[61]haveexaminedsubnationalclimatechangepolicymakingintheUSby
using newspaper coverage to explain policy output and have analyzed how climate change was
portrayedinthenews.Theyconcluded
thatlegislativeactivitywasincreasedwhenconsequencesof
climate change were discussed in the media. Likewise, another study by Oehl [62] showed that
public demand, measured in terms of overall media coverage and claims for or against climate
change mitigation, mattered for the total number of climate change mitigation policies adopted.
Furthermore,theyarguedthatpublicopinionanddemandsalsosignificantlyinfluencedthescope
ofadoptedpoliciesandthusinfluencedhowcomprehensiveorbroadlegislativeactivityon climate
changewas.
Eventhoughthereisnoup‐to‐datecomprehensivedataonthelinksbetweensocialmediaand
publicactivismithas
beenobservedthatadvocacyorganizations,suchas350.org,havemanagedto
use social media to spread their message and attract a large number of followers and active
members. Citizens have also used online platforms, such as Facebook and Twitter, to share
informationandorganizeactivitiesandprotestsaroundmajorclimateevents,
suchastheCOP15in
Denmarkin 2009andtheCOP21in2015inParis[2].Whatstartedas asoloprotestbyaSwedish
schoolgirl Greta Thunberg in 2018 has become a worldwide campaign, with more than 20,000
studentsjoiningtheinitiativeandThunbergbeinginvitedto
speakonbehalfofchildrenatvarious
internationaltribunals[63].InApril2019,climateactivistshaveorganizedthemselvestoblockthe
entrance to several commercial buildings of companies, accusing them of links with oil and gas
industries,whichtheysawaspolluters,andputtingpressureontheFrenchgovernmenttoaddress
Climate2019,7,122 12 of 17
climatechangeissues[64].Anderson[2]reportsthateventhoughstudiesonthelinksbetweensocial
mediaandclimatechangeactivismarescarce,anumberofthemsuggestthatthereisacorrelation
between frequent usage of online information shared through social media and increased public
engagement.
Hereweneed
tomentionthatthereareanumberofotherfactorswhichmayormaynotaffect
publicperceptionsandengagementintheclimatechangeprocess. Declinesinpublicinvolvement
were,forexample ,observedinthelate2000sandaroundthefinancialcrisisof2008,whenpeople
wereconcernedwithwhatmight
havebeenconsideredmorepressingissuesoftheday.Wangand
Kim[65]foundoutintheirstudyonKoreathatclimatechangeskepticismalsodependedonfactors
suchasreligiosity,hierarchy,gender,age,educationlevel,andsocialclass.Toaddtothis,anumber
of media outlets report false
or confusing information related to climate change, usually serving
privateorpoliticalinterests,creatingmistrustinthescienceofclimatechange.Stronglobbiesand/or
publicmistrustorlackofinterestcoulddissuadepoliticaldecision‐makersfromadoptinglegislation
that mightnotbe popular or mighthurt powerful economicinterests [26]. After
all, the economic
developmentofnationshasbeenpossibleduetocountries’exploitationofresourcessuchascoal,oil
andgas,andisstilllargelyperceivedtobedependentontheseresources[6].
Finally, soft power—and especially soft power delivered through social media—is hard to
controlorpredict.Publicperceptions
andengagementdependseverelyonsocio‐economicrealities
and cultural constructs. Nonetheless, we can observethat the increasing information‐sharing and
trans‐nationalization of climate initiatives, has forced leaders to consider the inclusion of climate
change policies more thoroughly into domestic agendas, has helped spread low‐carbon policy
approachesand
technologiesaroundtheworld,andisstimulatingagrowinginterestininnovative
global solutions [6]. What is more, social media could be used as a public tool for demanding
increasedtransparencyandscrutinyofpoliticalactivities,actingasapublicwatchdog.Aspolitical
efforts are still sporadic and not efficient
enough, it may be precisely the action or inaction of
individuals that will make the change. The more such initiatives are spreadandknown,the more
followerstheycouldgain. AsJoseph Nye [13] simply puts it:“Politicsinaninformationagemay
ultimatelybeaboutwhosestorywins”.
AuthorContributions:A.V.M.wasresponsiblefortheoverallcoordinationamong the authors,forthe body
andflowofthepaper,andforallediting.ShehasprovidedthemajorityoftheinputinSections1,2,and4,and
someinputinSection3.O.K.R.andV.B.H.haveprovidedalmostequal
contributions,providingthemajorityof
inputinSection3,includingalltables,charts,andgraphsandtherelevantanalysis,andhaveprovidedsome
inputinSections1,2,and4.R.S.hasprovidedoverallcoordinationandguidanceforthestructure,flow,and
focusofthepaper.
Funding:Thisresearchreceived
noexternalfunding.
Acknowledgments: The first author is thankful to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and
Technology (MEXT) of Japan for the provided scholarship to conduct research in the field of disaster risk
reduction. The second and third authors are thankful to the Pusbindiklatren Bappenas Programme,
Government of Indonesia,
for the provided scholarship. The authors also acknowledge the support received
from the Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development Program of the Graduate School of Media and
Governance,KeioUniversity,Japan,inconductingthisstudy.
ConflictsofInterest:Theauthorsdeclarenoconflictofinterest.
Climate2019,7,122 13 of 17
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