TUNISIA
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE
ii
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
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iii
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This profile is part of a series of Climate Risk Country Profiles developed by the World Bank Group (WBG). The country profile
synthesizes most relevant data and information on climate change, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation actions and policies
at the country level. The country profile series are designed as a quick reference source for development practitioners to better
integrate climate resilience in development planning and policy making. This effort is managed and led by Veronique Morin
(Senior Climate Change Specialist, WBG) and Ana E. Bucher (Senior Climate Change Specialist, WBG).
The Tunisia profile was written by MacKenzie Dove (Senior Climate Change Consultant, WBG). Additional support was provided
by Jason Johnston (Operations Analyst, WBG).
Climate and climate-related information is largely drawn from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), a WBG online
platform with available global climate data and analysis based on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
reports and datasets. The team is grateful for all comments and suggestions received from the sector, regional, and country
development specialists, as well as climate research scientists and institutions for their advice and guidance on use of climate
related datasets.
iv
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
COUNTRY OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
CLIMATOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Climt Bslin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Ovrviw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
K Trnds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Climt Futur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Ovrviw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
K Trnds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Ovrviw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
K Trnds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Implictions for DRM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO KEY SECTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Aricultur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Wtr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Enr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Hlth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Costl Zons nd S Lvl Ris . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
ADAPTATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Institutionl Frmwork for Adpttion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Polic Frmwork for Adpttion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Rcommndtions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Rsrch Gps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Dt nd Informtion Gps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Institutionl Gps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
CONTENTS
1
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Climate change is a major risk to good development outcomes, and the World Bank Group is committed to playing
an important role in helping countries integrate climate action into their core development agendas. The World
Bank Group is committed to supporting client countries to invest in and build a low-carbon, climate-resilient future,
helping them to be better prepared to adapt to current and future climate impacts.
The World Bank Group is investing in incorporating and systematically managing climate risks in development
operations through its individual corporate commitments.
A key aspect of the World Bank Group’s Action Plan on Adaptation and Resilience (2019) is to help countries shift
from addressing adaptation as an incremental cost and isolated investment to systematically incorporating climate
risks and opportunities at every phase of policy planning, investment design, implementation and evaluation of
development outcomes. For all International Development Association and International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development operations, climate and disaster risk screening is one of the mandatory corporate climate
commitments. This is supported by the Bank Group’s Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool which enables all
Bank staff to assess short- and long-term climate and disaster risks in operations and national or sectoral planning
processes. This screening tool draws up-to-date and relevant information from the World Bank’s Climate Change
Knowledge Portal, a comprehensive online ‘one stop shop’ for global, regional, and country data related to climate
change and development.
Recognizing the value of consistent, easy-to-use technical resources for client countries as well as to support
respective internal climate risk assessment and adaptation planning processes, the World Bank Group’s Climate
Change Group has developed this content. Standardizing and pooling expertise facilitates the World Bank Group in
conducting initial assessments of climate risks and opportunities across sectors within a country, within institutional
portfolios across regions, and acts as a global resource for development practitioners.
For developing countries, the climate risk profiles are intended to serve as public goods to facilitate upstream
country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends
and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs,
adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions.
It is my hope that these efforts will spur deepening of long-term risk management in developing countries and our
engagement in supporting climate change adaptation planning at operational levels.
Bernice Van Bronkhorst
Global Director
Climate Change Group (CCG)
The World Bank Group (WBG)
FOREWORD
2
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
T
unisia is located within northern Africa along the southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea, between the eastern
and western Mediterranean basins. It shares land borders with Algeria to the west and Libya to the southeast.
The country has a total area of 164,000 square kilometers (km
2
) and over 1,300 km of coastline along its
eastern and northern borders. The country is divided in two large geographical areas, separated by successive low
points occupied by the Chotts El Gharsa, Djerid and Fedjej, aligned from west to east. The northern area is diagonally
crossed by the Tunisian Ridge, a mountain chain comprising the Tell Atlas and the Saharan Atlas Mountains. Northwest
regions in the country are marked by high plains and a rugged landscape. The southeastern regions are dominated by a
low and hilly landscape, which extends to the coast. The center-west regions, which extend south of the Tunisian Ridge
are dominated by highlands bordering low and scattered mountain peaks and are occupied by steppes. Southern
areas consist of the Saharan desert whose eastern border is represented by the Matmata and Dahar chains.
1
Tunisia is a lower-middle income country and while the country has achieved important progress on its political transition
towards democratic systems and more open governance structures, economic progress has not kept pace. The country
remains constrained by political fragmentation and the lack of consensus on key economic reforms. Additionally, recent
ongoing conflict in neighboring Libya has further hindered economic recovery and added to social disaffection and
unemployment, especially among youth. Tunisia is one of the few countries in the world where a higher level of education
decreases employability, in particular for women.
2
Tunisia has a population of 11.7 million people (2019) with an annual
population growth rate of 1.1% (2018),
3
and is projected to reach 12.7 million people by 2030 and 13.8 million people
by 2050. An estimated 69% of the current population resides in urban areas, which is expected to reach 80% in 2050.
The country has a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $38.7 billion (2019), and has experienced relatively volatile
growth rates over the past decade, with a current annual growth rate of 1.0% in 2019 (Table 1).
4
COUNTRY OVERVIEW
TABLE 1. Dt snpshot: K dvlopmnt indictors
Indicator 2018
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
76.5
Population density (people per sq. km land area)
74.4
% of Population with access to electricity
99.8%
GDP per capita (current US$)
$3,438.80
1
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
2
World Bank (2019). Tunisia Overview. URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tunisia/overview
3
World Bank Open Data, Data Retrieved December 2019. Data Bank: World Development Indicators, Tunisia. URL: https://databank.
worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
4
World Bank Open Data, Data Retrieved December 2019. Data Bank: Population Estimates and Projections, Tunisia. URL: https://
databank.worldbank.org/source/population-estimates-and-projections
5
University of Notre Dame (2020). Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. URL: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/
The ND-GAIN Index
5
ranks 181 countries using a score which calculates a country’s vulnerability to climate change
and other global challenges as well as their readiness to improve resilience. This Index aims to help businesses and
the public sector better identify vulnerability and readiness in order to better prioritize investment for more efficient
responses to global challenges. Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, Tunisia is recognized
3
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
as vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranked 64th
out of 181 countries in the 2019 ND-GAIN Index.
The more vulnerable a country is the lower their
score, while the more ready a country is to improve its
resilience the higher it will be. Norway has the highest
score and is ranked 1st. Figure 1 is a time-series plot
of the ND-GAIN Index showing Tunisia’s progress.
Tunisia is considered highly vulnerable to climate
change and is expected to experience adverse
impacts from increased temperatures, increased
aridity, reduced precipitation, and rising sea levels.
Socio-economic and environmental implications will
particularly affect water resources, the agricultural
and livestock, ecosystems, coastal zones, health,
and tourism sectors.
6
Tunisia submitted its Nationally-Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC in 2016 and its Third National
Communication (NC3) in 2019, in support of the country’s efforts to achieve its economic development goals,
strengthen its approach to environmental sustainability and increase its adaptive capacity to climate change. The
country is particularly vulnerable in regards to water security, agriculture and livestock health, as well as to adverse
conditions for health, human settlements, and the country’s energy sector. Tunisia’s NDC is consistent with the
country’s overall goals of increasing its development, reducing its vulnerability and achieving long-term sustainable,
economic development. Key focus is on the sustainability of the environment, water resources, energy, agriculture
sectors and costal zones.
7
Tunisia
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
FIGURE 1. ND-GAIN Indx for Tunisi
6
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/
Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
7
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/
PublishedDocuments/Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
Climt Bslin
Overview
While Tunisia is the smallest country in North Africa, it still comprises five climate zones. The country is largely
influenced by the Atlas Mountains and Mediterranean Sea. It experiences precipitation gradients, one from north
to south, which experiences decreasing precipitation, and the other west to east which experiences increasing
precipitation. The Atlas Mountains are the dominant force in Tunisia’s northern areas, which is characterized by a
CLIMATOLOGY
4
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
TABLE 2. Dt snpshot: Summr sttistics
Climate Variables 1901–2019
Mean Annual Temperature (°C)
19.4°C
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)
263.5 mm
Mean Maximum Annual Temperature (°C)
25.4°C
Mean Minimum Annual Temperature (°C)
13.5°C
8
GERICS (2019). Climate Fact Sheet – Tunisia. URL: https://www.climate-service-center.de/products_and_publications/fact_sheets/
climate_fact_sheets/index.php.en
9
USAID (2018). Tunisia – Climate Risk Profile. URL: https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Tunisia_CRP.pdf
10
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
11
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/tunisia/
climate-data-historical
typical Mediterranean climate with hot summers (June to September) of up to 22°C and precipitation occurring in
the winter (November to February), which does not exceed 500 millimeters (mm) of rainfall per year. The country’s
western, central and mountainous region is characterized by an arid steppe with an annual mean temperature
of 18°C. In southern areas, the highest part of the mountain ridge lies between a cold arid desert (annual mean
temperature is lower than 18°C and the hot arid desert zone covering the plains to the south, with annual mean
precipitation rates of about 150 mm per year. A unique feature is Tunisia’s eastern coastal border, downwind of the
Atlas Mountains. Due to land-sea interaction with the Mediterranean Sea this region still comprises an arid steppe
climate with an annual mean temperature greater than 18°C, but experiences slightly higher precipitation rates at
least in the winter months. In Gabes, the annual precipitation is about 175 mm per year, near Djerba, 207 mm per
year. Overall, precipitation occurs in winter months.
8
In Tunisia’s southern semi-arid to arid areas, drought can be
frequent, while its coastal region experiences relatively frequent flooding.
9
Tunisia is a highly arid country and receives very little annual precipitation. The majority of rain falls along the relatively
humid, coastal areas, with southern areas receiving as little as 150 mm per year. Primary challenges continue to be
centered around water resource availability, changing precipitation patterns and increasing population demands.
Annual average temperatures for the country range between 16°C and 20°C, with hot summers. Summer mean
temperatures often exceed 25°C with max temperatures reaching 32°C. Tunisia’s winters are relatively mild with
average temperatures between 10°C and 14°C.
10
Analysis of data from the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) (Table 2) shows historical
information for 1901–2019. Mean annual mean temperature for Tunisia is 19.4°C, with average monthly temperatures
ranging between 28°C (June, July) and 10°C (January). Mean annual precipitation is 263.5 mm, with highest rainfall
occurring September to April, with relatively very low levels of precipitation occurring nearly all year round (Figure 2).
11
Figure 3 shows the spatial variation of observed average annual precipitation and temperature across Tunisia.
5
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Temperature
Rainfall
Temperature
Rainfall
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0°C
12°C
24°C
36°C
48°C
0 mm
10 mm
20 mm
30 mm
40 mm
FIGURE 2. Avr monthl tmprtur nd rinfll of Tunisi for 1991–2019
12
12
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/tunisia/
climate-data-historical
13
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/tunisia/
climate-data-historical
FIGURE 3. Mp of vr nnul tmprtur (lft); nnul prcipittion (riht) of Tunisi,
1901–2019
13
6
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Key Trends
Temperature
Tunisia has experienced a significant increase in its temperatures over the last 30 years, with temperatures
increasing by 0.37°C per decade. Tunisia has observed a mean average temperature increase of 1.4°C since
1901 (Figure 4). In the northern areas of Tunisia, larger temperature increases were experienced, with up to
2°C temperature increase observed. Greater warming has been observed during the summer season (May to
September), rather than the winter. A reduction in cool nights and increase in warm nights since 1960 have
been observed.
14
14
GERICS (2019). Climate Fact Sheet – Tunisia. URL: https://www.climate-service-center.de/products_and_publications/fact_sheets/
climate_fact_sheets/index.php.en
15
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/tunisia/
climate-data-historical
16
GERICS (2019). Climate Fact Sheet – Tunisia. URL: https://www.climate-service-center.de/products_and_publications/fact_sheets/
climate_fact_sheets/index.php.en
FIGURE 4. Obsrvd tmprturfor Tunisi, 1901–2019
15
Temperature
18°C
19°C
20°C
21°C
22°C
Annual Mean
5 Year Smoothing
1901 1926 1941 1956 1971 20011986
2016
Precipitation
Precipitation in Tunisia is highly variable; however, precipitation was observed to have decreased approximately
3% over the past 30 years. Tunisia has also experienced reduced water availability in some areas and increased
periods of drought and dry spells. Stronger precipitation events resulting in flash flooding in recent years has also
been observed.
16
7
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Climt Futur
Overview
The main data source for the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) is the CMIP5
(Coupled Inter-comparison Project Phase 5) data ensemble, which builds the database for the global climate change
projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). Four Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were selected
and defined by their total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of GHG emissions from all sources) pathway and
level by 2100. The RCP2.6 for example represents a very strong mitigation scenario, whereas the RCP8.5
assumes business-as-usual scenario. For more information, please refer to RCP Database. For simplification,
these scenarios are referred to as a low (RCP2.6); a medium (RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario
in this profile. Table 3 provides CMIP5 projections for essential climate variables under high emission scenario
(RCP 8.5) over 4 different time horizons. Figure 5 presents the multi-model (CMIP5) ensemble of 32 Global
Circulation Models (GCMs) showing the projected changes in annual precipitation and temperature for the
periods 2040–2059 and 2080–2099.
TABLE 3. Dt snpshot: CMIP5 nsmbl projction
CMIP5 Ensemble Projection 2020–2039 2040–2059 2060–2079 2080–2099
Monthly Temperature Anomaly (°C) +0.5°C to +2.2°C
(+1.3°C)
+1.5°C to +3.3°C
(+2.3°C)
+2.0°C to +4.9°C
(+3.3°C)
+3.0°C to +6.5°C
(+4.6°C)
Monthly Precipitation Anomaly (mm) -5.9 to +5.2
(-0.5 mm)
-7.0 to +4.9
(-1.3 mm)
-8.8 to +4.5
(-1.6 mm)
-9.4 to +3.7
(-3.0 mm)
Note: The table shows CMIP5 ensemble projection under RCP8.5. Bold value is the range (10th–90th Percentile) and values in parentheses
show the median (or 50th Percentile).
8
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
FIGURE 5. CMIP5 nsmbl projctd chn (32 GCMs) in nnul tmprtur (top) nd prcipittion
(bottom) b 2040–2059 (lft) nd b 2080-2099 (riht), rltiv to 1986–2005 bslin undr RCP8.5
17
17
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Projected Future Climate. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/tunisia/climate-data-projections
9
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Key Trends
Temperature
According to analysis from the German Climate Service Center (GERICS) of 32 Global Climate Models (GCMs),
Tunisia is projected to experience mean annual temperature increases from 1.9°C to 5.3°C by the 2080s. Maximum
temperatures are expected to increase by 2.3°C to as much as 6.4°C by the 2080s. This is also likely to result in
longer lasting and more intense heat waves, with an increase in heat waves by up to an additional 78 days per year
by the 2080s; cold nights and cold spells are also expected to significantly decline.
18
Across all emission scenarios, temperatures will continue to increase for Tunisia throughout the end of the century.
As seen in Figure 6, under a high-emission scenario, average temperatures will increase rapidly by mid-century.
Across the seasonal cycle, temperature increases will spike from October to April with daily temperatures greater
than 25°C (Figure 7). Increased heat and extreme heat conditions will result in significant implications for human
and animal health, agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems.
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
degC
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Year
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
FIGURE 6. Historicl nd projctd vr
tmprtur for Tunisi from 1986 to 2099
19
days
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
–2
10
8
6
4
2
0
FIGURE 7. Projctd chn in summr ds
(Tmx > 25°C)
20
18
GERICS (2019). Climate Fact Sheet – Tunisia. URL: https://www.climate-service-center.de/products_and_publications/fact_sheets/
climate_fact_sheets/index.php.en
19
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Interactive Climate Indicator Dashboard - Agriculture. Tunisia. URL https://
climatedata.worldbank.org/CRMePortal/web/agriculture/crops-and-land-management?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
20
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Interactive Climate Indicator Dashboard - Agriculture. Tunisia. URL https://
climatedata.worldbank.org/CRMePortal/web/agriculture/crops-and-land-management?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
10
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Precipitation
Rainfall trends in Tunisia are variable. Analysis from the German Climate Services Center (GERICS) indicate
that the reduction in precipitation, observed over the past 30 years, is expected to continue through the end
of the century, with projections indicating reduced
precipitation and a trend of longer and more
frequent dry spells. Additionally, an increase in the
intensity of heavy rainfall events is expected under
high emissions scenarios. This will also affect the
water balance for the country, with the majority of
projections indicating a decrease in water balance
by the 2080s.
21
Figure 8, shows the change in the
projected annualaverage precipitation for Tunisia.
Water routing, storage and other management
options can be highly varied depending if the
precipitation input comes frequently or with long
periods of aridity in between rainfall.
22
As seen
below, annual average precipitation is low and is
expected to decrease slightly by the of the century
under a high emissions scenario of RCP8.5.
21
GERICS (2019). Climate Fact Sheet – Tunisia. URL: https://www.climate-service-center.de/products_and_publications/fact_sheets/
climate_fact_sheets/index.php.en
22
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Water Dashboard. Data Description. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/tunisia/climate-sector-water
23
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Agriculture Dashboard. Tunisia. URL: https://climatedata.worldbank.
org/CRMePortal/web/agriculture/crops-and-land-management?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
mm
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Year
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
FIGURE 8. Annul vr prcipittion in
Tunisi for 1986 to 2099
23
Ovrviw
Tunisia has a high degree of risk to natural hazards. The country experiences disasters such as flash flooding,
droughts, storms, sandstorms, and earthquakes; sea-level rise also poses a significant threat to the country’s
coastline not only due to inundation and salinization, but also from increasingly harmful storm surge. The region
has also been impacted by an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall,
landslides, and flooding, as well as droughts. An increased frequency of extreme events, such as inter alia droughts,
soil erosion and desertification. The country is expected to become generally hotter and drier in projected future
climates and as such, Tunisia, is increasingly severely impacted by and susceptible to drought. While drought
conditions are generally a common occurrence, Tunisia has experienced increasingly frequent occurrences of
CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS
11
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
24
UNISDR (2013). Factsheet: Overview of Disaster Risk Reduction in the Arab Region. URL: https://www.unisdr.org/files/31693_
drrfactsheetarabregionfinal.pdf
25
Reimann, L., Vafeidis, A., Brown, S., Hinkel, J., and Tol, R. (2018). Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal
flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. Nature Communications (2018) 9:4161. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9. URL: https://
www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06645-9.pdf
26
EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database - Universite catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED, D. Guha-Sapir, Brussels, Belgium. URL:
http://emdat.be/emdat_db/
27
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
28
European Commission (2018). The Future of Climate Action in the South Mediterranean Region. Lessons Learned Since the
Paris Agreement. ClimaSouth project. URL: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/70f66617-2cbc-11e8-b5fe-
01aa75ed71a1/language-en
TABLE 4. Nturl disstrs in Tunisi, 1900–2020
26
Natural Hazard
1900–2020 Subtype
Events
Count
Total
Deaths
Total
Affected
Total Damage
(‘000 USD)
Drought
Drought 2 0 31,400 0
Earthquake
Ground Movement 1 13 0 0
Flood
Flash Flood 5 69 37,508 36,000
Riverine Flood 4 49 180,500 242,800
Insect Infestation
Locust 2 0 0 0
Wildfire
Forest Fire 1 0 2,000 0
aridity and drought in recent years.
24
Sea level rise is projected to lead to the loss of a sizable proportion of
the northern and eastern coastlines due to a combination of inundation and erosion, with consequential loss of
agricultural land, infrastructure, and urban areas.
25
Data from the Emergency Event Database: EM-Dat database, presented in Table 4, shows the country has endured
various natural hazards, including floods, landslides, epidemic diseases, and storms.
K Trnds
Disaster risk from increased temperatures and reduced precipitation is expected to exacerbate existing tensions
for water resources between agricultural, and livestock and human needs, especially during periods of high
aridity and drought. The existing quality of available water from surface water and groundwater, is also likely to
be altered. Water scarcity and changing rainfall patterns are will play a significant role for the agricultural sector.
27
Increased temperatures and degraded agricultural conditions are expected to adversely impact livelihoods and
economic resilience of vulnerable groups as well as increased risks of wildfires. Most of the country’s population
and infrastructure are concentrated along the Mediterranean coast, making the country additionally vulnerable to
the impacts of sea level rise and coastal erosion, particularly inundation and saltwater intrusion. Figure 9 presents
the risk of coastal flooding and wildfires for Tunisia.
28
12
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Climate change is expected to increase the risk and intensity of water scarcity and drought across the country.
The primary sectors affected are water, agriculture, forestry, human health, and livestock. Additionally, increased
frequency of intense precipitation events will lead to a heightened risk of flooding, river bank over flow, and flash
flooding. Flooding may also result in soil erosion and water logging of crops, thus decreasing yields with the
potential to increase food insecurity; particularly for subsistence-scale farmers. Higher temperatures with increased
aridity may also lead to livestock stress and reduced crop yields. This is likely to result in significant economic losses,
damage to agricultural lands and infrastructure as well as human casualties. Furthermore, land degradation and soil
erosion, exacerbated by recurrent flood and drought adversely impacts agricultural production, further affecting the
livelihoods of the rural poor. Small rural farmers, are more sensitive to impacts of these types of disasters (floods,
dry periods) because they have limited resources with which to influence and increase adaptive capacity.
31
29
ThinkHazard! (2019). Tunisia - Coastal Flooding. URL: http://thinkhazard.org/en/report/248-tunisia/CF
30
ThinkHazard! (2019). Tunisia - Wildfire. URL: http://thinkhazard.org/en/report/248-tunisia/WF
31
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
FIGURE 9. Risk of Costl Flood (lft)
29
; Risks of Wildfirs (riht)
30
13
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Implictions for DRM
The Tunisian Government is focused on further advancing the country’s disaster risk management (DRM) efforts
and strengthening its disaster risk reduction (DRR) capabilities. The country has been collaborating with the
European Union to improve DRR capabilities across the Mediterranean by preparing Tunisia’s Civil Protection
program for enhanced DRM and increased international collaboration and cooperation. The Tunisian Civil Protection
National Office provides senior direction and management for the country’s DRM efforts. Additional ongoing
priorities for the sector include, strengthening regional coordination and investment in technological innovations
to address water scarcity, sea level rise and storms. Additional efforts are being placed on exploring disaster risk
financing and insurance mechanisms; enhancing early warning systems; and, building the capacity and financial
resources Additional investment in the strengthening of early warning systems and integrating resilience into urban
infrastructure investments remains a priority.
32
32
OCHA (2019). Tunisia – Humanitarian Data Exchange. URL: https://www.unocha.org/middle-east-and-north-africa-romena/tunisia
33
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/
Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
34
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
T
unisia is considered to be one of the Mediterranean countries most exposed to climate change. Primary
risks, which the country is likely to confront are temperature increases, reduced precipitation, rising sea
levels and escalating extreme weather phenomena (floods and droughts). These risks are likely to result
in significant environmental and socio-economic vulnerability.
33
The country remains highly vulnerable to climate
variability and change in the immediate as well as longer-term, particularly for the country’s water, agriculture,
energy, and health sectors. Impacts are already being experienced across the already highly arid country.
Water scarcity and drought conditions are expected to increase risks of food insecurity and may exacerbate
conflict situations over scarce resources, settlements, and population/ livestock movements. The country faces
increased challenges to the agricultural sector and the resulting loss of livelihoods and increased food insecurity.
These are expected to be further compounded by climate stressors, environmental degradation, impacted water
resources, and sea level rise presenting significant obstacles to the country’s ongoing development and poverty
reduction efforts.
34
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO KEY SECTORS
14
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
35
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
36
USAID (2018). Tunisia – Climate Risk Profile. URL: https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Tunisia_CRP.pdf
37
World Bank (2013). Economic of Climate Change in the Arab World. Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia and the
Republic of Yemen. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/709141468304773864/pdf/Economics-of-climate-change-
in-the-Arab-World.pdf
38
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
Aricultur
Overview
Tunisian agriculture is a crucial sector due to its significant contribution to the country’s food security and economy.
Tunisia has more than 10 million hectares (ha) of agricultural land, which represents 62% of the country’s total area;
32% of which is covered by annual and permanent crops. Livestock is dominated by sheep, cattle, goats and poultry.
The agriculture and agri-food sector accounts for approximately 14% of its GDP (2012). The sector provides
permanent income for 470,000 farmers, contributing to the stability of the rural population, which are 35% of the
country’s population.
35
The country’s top agricultural commodities are typical Mediterranean foods, including olive
oil, dates, citrus, grain, meat, and poultry products.
36
Agriculture remains an important part of the Tunisian economy
and provides significant employment opportunities. The two most important export crops are cereals and olive oil.
Tunisia is one of the world’s biggest producers and exporters of olive oil; it also exports dates and citrus fruits.
Additionally, Tunisia remains one of the few Arab countries that still produces most of the dairy products, vegetables,
fruit, and red meat consumed domestically. Since the 1980s, agricultural output has increased by approximately
40%, and exports of food have risen significantly. However, Tunisia remains a net importer of major food items,
including cereals, forage crops, and processed food.
37
Climate Change Impacts
The projected climate change impacts to food production, agricultural livelihoods and food security in Tunisia are
significant national concerns. Impacts on food production and food security are linked to projected water supply
constraints as well as temperature rise. Tunisia is projected to experience rising temperatures, decreasing precipitation,
increasing evapotranspiration and decreasing availability of water resources. This is expected to threaten the yields of
irrigated and rainfed crops in Tunisia by the end of the century and further threaten economic viability and sustainability
of the agricultural sector. The area of non-irrigated orchards could be reduced by about 800,000 ha, nearly 50% of the
current production area, especially in the central and the southern areas of the to be threatened by changing growing
conditions. Areas of irrigated cereals are expected to decrease by 20% in the 2020s, affecting mainly the central and
southern regions of Tunisia. Rainfed cereal crops could decrease by nearly 30% by the 2030s.
38
Higher temperatures can further negatively impact crops due to an increase in weeds and diseases. Increased
temperature, sea level rise, and decreased precipitation will also exacerbate existing water resources challenges
as currently the agriculture sector in Tunisia utilizes approximately 80% of all water resources. Floods and droughts
are expected to occur more frequently in coastal, desert, and urban areas, which may result in crop losses and food
insecurity. These climate risks are expected to also have a negative impact on crop yields, mainly wheat, barley, and
irrigated potatoes. Dryness and impaired soil health will also negatively impact fruit and olive oil production. The
projected increased heat will increase stress on crops and is also likely to change the length of the growing season.
15
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Decreased water availability is likely to reduce yields
and the reduction in soil moisture may alter suitable
areas for agriculture or the production of specific
crops. Increased heat and water scarcity conditions
are likely to increase evapotranspiration, expected
to contribute to crop failures and overall yield
reductions.
39
Figure 10 shows the average daily
max-temperature across the seasonal cycle. These
higher temperatures have implications for impacts
to soil moisture and crop growth and as seen in
the graph below, summer spikes in temperature for
traditional harvest seasons.
Adaptation Options
Recent efforts by the Tunisian Government have resulted in increased meteorological and climatic monitoring,
primarily focused on extreme events which can cause significant crop damage. The country has also worked
to improve its water efficiency following the adoption of its National Program on Water Savings in 1995. This
has resulted in localized irrigation (drip irrigation) now applied to 46% of the total area of irrigated perimeters.
Other adaptation measures implemented in the agricultural sector to reduce the water demand, particularly for
conservation agriculture have been implemented at local and regional scales. Within in agricultural zones, each
governorate, depending on the types of agriculture developed within its geographical area, has also planned
adaptation strategies to climate change by strengthening participative debates between managers and farmers
and inhabitants of rural areas. Several strategies have been recently developed to protect Tunisian ecosystems
from the impacts of climate change, focusing on sensitive oasis ecosystems.
41
The government has also committed
to increase the capacity building of institutions and sectors to improve understanding of climate change impacts
and key adaptation measures required. The government has committed to the following specific actions, such as
irrigated crops in the central regions, increasing mixed farming-livestock production in highly vulnerable regions,
introducing climate monitoring and early warning systems as well as climate insurance mechanisms for agriculture
and developing innovative systems for arable crops.
42
degreesC
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
FIGURE 10. Avr dil mx tmprtur
for Tunisi
40
39
USAID (2018). Tunisia – Climate Risk Profile. URL: https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Tunisia_CRP.pdf
40
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Agriculture. Dashboard URL: https://climatedata.worldbank.org/
CRMePortal/web/agriculture/crops-and-land-management?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
41
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
42
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/
Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
16
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Wtr
Overview
Tunisia is a water-scarce country and substantial imbalances exist in water resource distribution between the
better endowed north and the semi-arid south in regards to water balance, storage, and water distribution. Already,
the country has a 90% mobilization rate of water resources through dams, whereas groundwater resources are
overexploited. A network of canals and transfers exists to transport water from the North to the South.
43
The
country’s main, permanent watercourse is the Medjerda River, with sources in Algeria and on which Tunisia’s
largest dam, the Sidi Salem dam, is located. Rainwater also infiltrates the soil and contributes to the country’s water
reserves for rainfed agriculture, with the remaining water stored in wetlands or flowing towards the sea.
44
While the
country has made significant progress in regards to its water supply, sanitation and water-related health services,
significant imbalances and lack of access still remain high. Inequalities persist in regards to service availability, water
quality and access, particularly across different geographies and between urban and rural populations.
45
Climate Change Impacts
Tunisia is projected to experience decreases in average rainfall resulting in increases in the intensity and frequency
of dry periods and water scarcity. Increases in temperature should reduce soil moisture, surface water, and
underground water stocks. These are likely to worsen the increasing water needs, notably for human use, but
more particularly for agriculture, given the increase in evapotranspiration and the decrease in soil humidity. Most
of the country’s groundwater comes from deep aquifers in the south, among which the largest resources are
non-renewable fossil groundwater. Currently, the country is undergoing an intensive exploitation of underground
resources, which provide around 81% of the water needs of the irrigated sector.
46
Tunisia is also expected to experience a decrease in water availability, with greater decreases in water stocks
experienced in the northern areas of the country where ground water is the primary source for agriculture and
human consumption. The country’s water resource scarcity by the 2050s is expected to be significant and is
likely to result in further drying of key water sources, especially for rural communities and in central and southern
areas. Coastal aquifers are also being threatened by sea level rise and increased threats from overexploitation,
degradation and salinization. Water use conflicts are already occurring and are intensifying in Tunisia, especially
during drought periods. Rural areas relying on springs for drinking will be the most affected, given the drying up of
these springs. Women are likely to be even more vulnerable, considering that they often are responsible for water
supply and hygiene in the household. The poorest people, including those living in forests and rural areas, are likely
to be most affected, further intensifying the current social crises between different regions of the country.
47
43
World Bank Group (2018). Water and Sanitation for All in Tunisia. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
633951499266691889/pdf/P153680.pdf
44
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
45
World Bank Group (2018). Water and Sanitation for All in Tunisia. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
633951499266691889/pdf/P153680.pdf
46
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/
Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
47
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
17
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Rainfall and evaporation changes also impact degrees of surface water infiltration and recharge rates for
groundwater and low-water storage capacity increases the country’s dependence on unreliable rainfall patterns.
Changes in rainfall and evaporation translate directly to changes in surface water infiltration and groundwater
re-charge. This has the potential for further decreased reliability of unimproved groundwater sources and surface
water sources during droughts or prolonged dry seasons. Increased strain on pump mechanisms can lead to
breakdowns if maintenance is neglected and the potential for falling water levels in the immediate vicinity of wells
or boreholes, particularly in areas of high demand. Additionally, temperature increases have the potential to result
in increased soil moisture deficits even under conditions of increasing rainfall.
Figure 11 shows the projected annual Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) through the
end of the century. The SPEI is an index which represents the measure of the given water deficit in a specific
location, accounting for contributions of temperature-dependent evapotranspiration and providing insight into
increasing or decreasing pressure on water resources. Negative values for SPEI represent dry conditions,
with values below -2 indicating severe drought conditions, likewise positive values indicate increased wet
conditions. This is an important metric in understanding for the water sector in regards to quantity and quality
of supply for human consumption and agriculture use as well as for the energy sector as reductions in water
availability impacts river flow and the hydropower generating capabilities. At a national scale, Tunisia is projected
to experience significantly heightened dry conditions
and significant drought severity, which will likely
increase pressure on water resources for the country
and region by mid-century and by end of the century.
While Figure 10 shows nationally aggregated trends,
Figure 12 shows the spatial representation of SPEI
across the country for the periods 2040–2059 and
2080–2099. As shown, the entire country will be
under significant water stress, most acutely occurring
in the central and northwestern areas in the 2050s
and 2090s, respectively.
48
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Water Sector Dashboard. URL: https://climatedata.worldbank.org/
CRMePortal/web/water/land-use-/-watershed-management?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
Historical
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
unitless
0.5
0
–0.5
–1.0
–1.5
–2.0
–2.5
–3.0
–3.5
–4.0
FIGURE 11. Annul SPEI Drouht Indx in
Tunisi for th priod, 1986 to 2099
48
18
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Adaptation Options
Various adaptation measures have already been implemented to enhance Tunisia’s water usage efficiency. The
Djerba desalinization plant became operational in 2018 and the Sfax, Zarrat, and Sousse desalinization plants
are expected to be operational by 2020. Investments in these plants are projected to secure the drinking water
supply required though 2030. The reuse of wastewater is another possibility and another ongoing adaptation
effort. Additional efforts include the transference of surplus water from the extreme north to inland regions, water
transference for city of Kairouan is under review and would require the expansion and connection of dams, transfer
lines and additional storage facilities. Water and soil conservation have also been introduced as part of a new
strategy integrating the impact of climate change on the country and to reduce water demand from key sectors
such as agriculture.
49
The Tunisian Government has also committed to specific adaptation measures to transfer and
reuse treated wastewater and to improve and secure the water supplies of large urban centers, especially Greater
Tunis, Cap-bon, Sahel and Sfax.
50
FIGURE 12. Sptil rprsnttion of SPEI cross Tunisi for th priod 2040–2059 (lft) nd
2080–2099 (riht), undr RCP8.5
49
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
50
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/
Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
19
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Enr
Overview
Tunisia’s power sector is relatively well developed, and nearly the entire population enjoys access to the national
electricity grid. Tunisia has a current power production capacity of 5,547 megawatts (MW) installed in 25 power plants,
which produced 19,252 gigawatt hours in 2018. The State power utility, STEG, controls 91.5% of the country’s installed
power production capacity and produces 81% of its electricity. The remainder is produced by Tunisia’s only independent
power producer, Carthage Power Company. However, as a result of delays in power plant construction, the power sector
does not possess excess generation capacity and is susceptible to brownouts. Peak summer electricity demand is often
not met and the country’s 5% annual growth in power consumption continues to add additional strain on the sector.
Current power generation projects at various stages of design and development will help meet an expected doubling
in electricity demand over the next 15 years. Approximately 97% of Tunisia’s electricity is generated from fossil fuels,
mainly natural gas. Nearly 45.5% of Tunisia’s natural gas needs are met through imports (mainly from Algeria); local
gas production comes from the concessions of the country’s national exploration company and foreign companies’
concessions. Just 3% of Tunisia’s electricity is generated from renewables, including hydroelectric, solar, and wind
energy.
51
Despite low economic growth, primary energy demand in Tunisia has increased steadily since the revolution,
with gas demand quadrupling since 1990s’ levels. While peak electricity demand increased at a high pace, the vertically
integrated public electricity and gas utility has struggled to expand its installed generation capacity, which grew by
only 3.6% per year between 2010 and 2018 (as opposed to 7%–8% per year in the 2000s). Additionally, customer
payment discipline has declined and average gas prices have continued to increase, increasing strain on the sector.
52
Climate Change Impacts
Increasing temperatures and the increased frequency and intensity of aridity and drought are expected to further
increase energy demand. Changes in demand are likely to be through the expansion of peak-hour patterns, air
conditioning intensity needs and the increased need for water desalination (used in processing and station cooling).
The existing infrastructure and generation capabilities are ill-prepared to cope with the projected effects of climate
change and the increased demand. Existing energy systems are at risk of system failures and increased/ expanded
energy outages.
53
Additionally, the projected decrease in precipitation and change in seasonal rainfall patterns
are likely to reduce hydropower generation potential as well as the potential for revenue loss due to overbuilt
hydropower, which may be under supplied. Increased evaporation rates from existing water storage facilities
will also increase production costs, resulting in increased prices for consumers. Increased temperatures and
changing rainfall patterns may also alter the seasonal demand for energy, increasing demand during peak loads
with a projected increase in net electricity usage.
54
While Tunisia has planned to increase its renewable energy
consumption by up to 30% by 2030, infrastructure and investment have yet to keep pace with these goals.
55
51
US Department of Commerce (2019). Tunisia – Electrical Power Systems and Renewable Energy. URL: https://www.export.gov/
article?id=Tunisia-Electrical-Power-Systems-and-Renewable-Energy
52
World Bank (2019). Energy Sector Improvement Project – Tunisia. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
296941561687292260/pdf/Tunisia-Energy-Sector-Improvement-Project.pdf
53
Middle East Institute (2012). Implications of Climate Change on Energy and Security in the MENA Region. URL: https://www.mei.edu/
publications/implications-climate-change-energy-and-security-mena-region
54
World Bank (2019). Energy Sector Improvement Project – Tunisia. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
296941561687292260/pdf/Tunisia-Energy-Sector-Improvement-Project.pdf
55
Chibani, A. (2018). Climate Change Mitigation in Tunisia: Challenges and Progress. EcoMENA, 26 March, 2018. URL: https://www.
ecomena.org/climate-change-tunisia/
20
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Cooling Degree Days shows the relationship between daily heat and cooling demand, typically sourced through a form
of active cooling or an evaporative process. The change in cooling degree days provides insight into the potential for
extended seasons of power demand or periods in which cooling demand (power demands) might increase. As seen
in Figure 13, seasonal increases for cooling demands are expected to increase over an extended summer period
(May to October). The Warm Spell Duration Index represents the number of days in a sequence of at least six days in
which the daily maximum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature. As shown in
Figure 14, warm spells are expected to sharply increase in the second half of the century, especially under RCP8.5.
°F
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
–100
0
100
200
300
RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
days
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Year
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
–20
FIGURE 13. Chn in Coolin Dr Ds
(65°F) in Tunisi for th priod 2040–2059
56
FIGURE 14. Wrm Spll Durtion Indx in
Tunisi for th priod 1986 to 2099
57
56
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia – Energy. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/
country/tunisia/climate-sector-energy
57
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020): Tunisia Energy Sector Dashboard. URL: https://climatedata.worldbank.org/
CRMePortal/web/energy/oil-gas-and-coal-mining?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
58
World Bank (2019). Energy Sector Improvement Project – Tunisia. URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/
296941561687292260/pdf/Tunisia-Energy-Sector-Improvement-Project.pdf
59
Middle East Institute (2012). Implications of Climate Change on Energy and Security in the MENA Region. URL: https://www.mei.
edu/publications/implications-climate-change-energy-and-security-mena-region
Adaptation Options
As a result of Tunisia’s growing domestic energy demand, the government is working to diversify its energy supply
and specifically, to increase the amount of power generated from renewable sources, particularly hydro and solar.
However, electricity consumption continues to outpace generation capacity and expansion. While Tunisia was once
a net exporter of oil and gas, the country has become heavily dependent upon external supply to meet energy needs.
More than half of the country’s natural gas, 72% of which is used for energy production, is imported form Algeria.
Dependency on energy imports reached 51% in 2018; a significant strain on the country’s energy security.
58
Tunisia should continue towards the development and implementation of innovative new regulatory and finance
models to increase efficiency, especially for utilities and, ultimately implement customer energy savings programs
and new approaches to the delivery of electricity, including renewable energies. The government has committed
to build institutional and technical capacities of different units in the energy sector in specific response to climate
change issues. Increased support for research and technological development should also be implemented to
enable the electricity sector to deal more effectively with climate change.
59
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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Hlth
Overview
More than 90% of Tunisians are covered through the country’s health insurance schemes or free medical
assistance programs, which are provided for vulnerable populations; public health facilities provide preventive
services free of charge, regardless of income.
60
Tunisia has experienced rising living standards over the past
decades due to the successes of national health programs such as the reduction of infant mortality (from 51.4%
in 1985 to 16.3% in 2014). As of 2015, the state budget allocated 5.6% towards health efforts (1.9% of
GDP). Overall, Tunisians benefit from an extensive offer of care but challenges remain such as strong regional
inequalities and a growing demand of healthcare due to an aging population. Finally, the presence of doctors in
rural areas remains scarce, causing difficulties to access health care facilities in some areas.
61
Health challenges
continue to disproportionately affect the rural poor and have the potential to impact the country’s economic
prosperity more broadly over the long-term. The system remains fragmented, particularly for rural and poor areas
and as such, the centralized nature of the national system has often resulted in lack of responsiveness to unique
local needs or geographical disparities.
62
Climate Change Impacts
For Tunisia, the projected increase in heat waves, dust storms, coastal flooding, and extreme weather events are
likely to have a significant impact on the health of the population, with the urban poor particularly at risk. Given
the projection of higher temperatures, a resurgence of vector borne diseases such as malaria, leishmaniasis,
dengue, and West Nile fever are expected. Changes in rainfall patterns as well as temperatures may change the
geographical distribution of insect vectors of these diseases, such as mosquitoes or sandflies.
63
The rise in temperature is likely to exacerbate respiratory diseases, and water-borne diseases may spread due to
degradation of the quality of water resources. The current deterioration of water quality and related health risks are
caused by a lack of water sterilization. Access to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene may become more difficult,
resulting in new break outs of pathogenic microorganisms and potential bacteriological contamination. Vector
borne diseases and water contamination are expected to affect rural areas in particular, mainly in the center and
north-west part of Tunisia, where access to drinking water and sanitation is already limited.
64
The increase of heat
waves and heat islands could strongly increase respiratory diseases. Increase in the CO
2
content of the atmosphere,
degrading the air quality, would also contribute to increased risks of heart attacks, strokes and respiratory infections.
People living in urban areas should be more affected because of greater pollution by fine particles and higher CO
2
60
WHO (2013). Tunisia: Health Systems Profile – key health system indicators. URL: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/
Country_profile_2013_EN_15402.pdf
61
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
62
WHO (2013). Tunisia: Health Systems Profile – key health system indicators. URL: http://applications.emro.who.int/docs/
Country_profile_2013_EN_15402.pdf
63
WHO (2015). Climate and Health County Profile – Tunisia. URL: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/246121/WHO-
FWC-PHE-EPE-15.46-eng.pdf?sequence=1
64
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/
PublishedDocuments/Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
content in the air. The increase in droughts and floods is likely to also destabilize the agricultural sector, which could
have a significant impact on food security in the country, causing an increase in malnutrition.
65
Increasing temperatures are of increasing concern for Tunisia. For the country, the annual distribution of days
with a high-heat index provides insight into the health hazard of heat. Figure 15 shows the expected Number of
Days with a Heat Index >35°C for the 2090s; showing a sharp increase by mid-century and continuing to sharply
increase by end of the century, under a high-emission scenario. It also shows night temperatures (>20°C), which are
expected to rapidly increase in a high-emission scenario. Increased health threats can be projected and monitored
through the frequency of tropical nights. Tropical Nights (Figure 16) represents the projected increase in tropical
nights for different emission scenarios to demonstrate the difference in expected numbers of tropical nights.
65
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
66
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Health Sector Dashboard. URL: https://climatedata.worldbank.org/
CRMePortal/web/health/systems-and-service?country=TUN&period=2080-2099
67
WB Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Health Sector. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/
country/tunisia/climate-sector-health
68
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
69
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/
Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
days
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Year
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
FIGURE 15. Ds with  Ht Indx
>35°C
66
days
Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5
Year
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
FIGURE 16. Numbr of Tropicl Nihts
(Tmin >20°C)
67
Adaptation Options
Tunisia’s Ministry of Health is responsible for vector disease fight and control, and has cooperated with the country’s
National Meteorological Institute to establish early warning systems for climate related health risks. An early warning
system focused on new and emerging diseases was set up in 2008, in coordination with the National Observatory
for New and Emerging Diseases. Furthermore, the health sector is focused on increasing and strengthening
its health surveillance and risk mapping, that focus on health-related adverse conditions and a strengthened
knowledge management and communication network for information sharing. The country is also working to
expand its health system, including the expansion of district health offices, surveillance systems and vaccination
for children.
68
Tunisia has also focused on communication and health education to encourage healthy behaviors
and has committed to raising community awareness about climate change induced risks and adaptation options.
69
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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Costl Zons nd S Lvl Ris
Overview
Tunisia has a coastline of 2,290 km, which is comprised of 1,280 km of continental coastline, 450 km of island
coastline and 560 km of lagoons. The three main types of fishing found in Tunisia’s coastal areas are trawling,
lamp fishing, and inshore fishing. The main marine production area is located in Sousse, Monastir and Nabeul.
The production of continental aquaculture, is mainly located in Béja. Tunisia’s coastal zone also plays a vital role in
the country’s development and economic prosperity. The diverse coastal environment powers more than 80% of
the country’s economic activities, houses 90% of its tourism infrastructure, and is the site of a major share of the
nation’s irrigated agriculture.
70
Climate Change Impacts
Tunisian coasts are at highl risk from sea level rise (SLR), coastal erosion and storm surges and a significant
retreat of the coastline is expected by the end of the century. More than 3,000 ha of urban areas are considered
vulnerable and threatened by submersion due to SLR, and more than half of these potentially submersible lands
are residential urban areas located mainly in the city of Tunis and in the city of Sfax. Vulnerable zones also include
781 ha of industrial zones located mainly in Tunis and Sfax, and 560 ha of tourist zones largely located on the
eastern side of the island of Djerba.
Tunisia has already lost more than 90 km of beaches due to erosion or due to the construction of artificial
defense structures. Of the 570 km of existing beaches, 190 km are classified as very degraded and likely to
disappear.
71
Tunisia is also expected to experience loss through the submersion of approximately 16,000 ha
of agricultural land in low-lying coastal areas and approximately 700,000 ha of built-up areas. Salinization
is expected to impact up to 50% of resources available in coastal aquifers, with the potential to indirectly
jeopardize the sustainability of 38,000 ha of irrigable land by the 2050s (10% of currently irrigated land). The
country’s burgeoning tourism industry is expected to see a decline in activity due to retreating beaches, with
losses estimated at USD 2 billion, approximately 0.5% of annual GDP. Losses are expected to occur primarily
in the tourism sector (55%) and agriculture sector (45%), with the further loss of an estimated 36,000 jobs in
tourism and agriculture sectors.
72
The sustainability of fishing practices (foot-fishing, Charfia fishing) is also threatened by sea level rise. Inland
fisheries are also threatened, especially on Kerkennah Island and it is estimated that the entire population of
Kerkennah (15,500 inhabitants) for whom the only source of income comes from the sea (coastal fishing and
70
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
71
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
72
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/
PublishedDocuments/Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
sponge fishing) will be affected. Moreover, human
activities have already degraded ecological habitats
on the Tunisian coastline. These degradations are
likely to increase with SLR, the water warming and
the increase of its salinity. Ecosystems’ degradation
could be accompanied by a proliferation of invasive
alien species, as already observed for the blue crab
(Portunis segnus), the Atlantic tropical crab (Libinia
dubia) and the false Red Sea shrimp (Erugosquilla
massavensis), which threaten the fish and seafood
richness, as well as the fishing activity.
73
Figure 17
shows the change in sea level for Tunisia since
1993.
Adaptation Options
Tunisia is committed to enhancing the adaptive
capacity and resilience of its coastal areas and
recognizes that without major efforts, the physical, human and financial impacts are expected to be significant.
While coastal protection to sea level rise is often costly, adaptation and mitigation efforts undertaken now are
expected to reduce damage and loss in the long-term.
75
Tunisia has already protected approximately 30 km of
its coastline through coastal defense structures, however new problems have emerged from these structures
such as the disfigurement of the landscape, accumulation of algae, eutrophication of water in closed creeks,
sedimentary imbalances, aggressive erosion in adjoining areas. The country’s Coastal Protection and Development
Agency (continues to search for new flexible methods for the protection of the coastline. These include beach top
stabilization techniques such as beach replenishments, anti-wind poles and stabilization by geo-containers.
A total of 6.5 km of coastline has already been protected between the sites of Tabarka, Korba, Bni Khiar, Mahdia,
Chebba, Gabes and Jerba. The ongoing Tunisian Coastal Protection Program aims to protect an additional 27 km
of coastline against erosion and marine submersion for the sites of Kerkennah, Rafraf, Sousse North, Soliman,
Tabarka and Hammamet. Significant need remains in order to strengthen the country’s institutional framework,
governance, regulatory measures, knowledge and capacity to cope with this important challenge of accelerated
SLR.
76
Efforts should also be made to increase community awareness about the risks of coastal zone erosion,
aquifer salinization and sea level rise.
73
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
74
WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2020). Tunisia Impacts – Sea Level Rise. URL: https://climateknowledgeportal.
worldbank.org/country/tunisia/impacts-sea-level-rise
75
Brown, S. et al. (2011). Sea Level Rise and Impacts in Africa. URL: https://www.weadapt.org/sites/weadapt.org/files/legacy-new/
placemarks/files/536cec204b2ea50585fbd9967d9-sea-level-rise-report-jan-2010.pdf
76
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
Sea Level Anomaly (mm)
0
25
50
75
100
Year
Sea Level Anomaly
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
2015
FIGURE 17. S lvl noml of Tunisi,
1993–2015
74
25
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
77
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
78
USAID (2018). Tunisia – Climate Risk Profile. URL: https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Tunisia_CRP.pdf
79
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
80
Republic of Tunisia (2016). Nationally Determined Contribution. URL: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/
PublishedDocuments/Tunisia%20First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
Institutionl Frmwork for Adpttion
Tunisia was one of the first countries to integrate climate change within its Constitution, however it has yet to
officially designate an institution to coordinate climate change related public policy and action. Currently, the
primary institutions that support the coordination of climate change agendas and adaptation efforts are the Ministry
of Local Affairs and Environment, the National Agency for Energy Management, the Ministry of Agriculture, and
the Ministry of Water Resources and Fisheries. These agencies also serve as the Designated National Authority
for the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. Sectoral specific agencies also contribute to
the development of policies and measures to fight climate change.
77
The government has been relatively progressive
in addressing its climate change needs and has focused on the increased participation of its citizens and
made investment for improved decision making of social, economic and environmental issues related to climate
change. The government has also worked bi-laterally with the FAO, World Bank, and United Nations to identify
additional adaptation measures that can be undertaken. Tunisia has prioritized its wastewater management as a
means to combat current and future water scarcity and usage inefficiency. The National Water Council, established
in 2013, is responsible for updating water policies and strategies.
78
Polic Frmwork for Adpttion
Tunisia submitted its Third National Communication in 2019, its Second Biennial Report in 2016, and its Nationally-
Determined Contributions to the UNFCCC in 2016. These strategies are largely built on existing sectoral and
cross-cutting national strategies, such as Tunisia’s National Climate Change Strategy (2012), the Energy Efficiency
Strategy, and the Tunisian Solar Plan. Tunisia is committed to increasing its adaptive capacity to climate change
and increase sector collaboration.
79
To increase its adaptive capacity to projected impacts from climate change,
Tunisia is committed to the increased use of renewable energy, advancing locally-appropriate and more efficient
technologies to improve the country’s energy efficiency and increase its water management effectiveness.
80
National Frameworks and Plans
• Third National Communication (2019)
• Second Biennial Update Report (2016) French
• Nationally-Determined Contribution (2016)
• Second National Communication (2014) French
• De-Risking Renewable Energy Investment (2014)
• First National Communication (2001) French
ADAPTATION
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CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: TUNISIA
Rcommndtions
Research Gaps
• Gain a better understanding of the timing and magnitude of incidence of several important indicators of climate
change in the future, as well as the key vulnerabilities, development impact, and possible adaptation responses
specifically for water resources and sea level rise
• Widen the participation of the public, scientific institutions, women and local communities in planning and
management, accounting for approaches and methods of gender equity
• Strengthen environmental monitoring capabilities more effective environmental management
• Implement Monitoring, Verification and Reporting (MRV) systems to assist the country in managing climate
change impacts and needed adaptation and mitigation strategies
• Increase understanding of risks and impacts to Tunisia’s coastal zones, sea level rise impacts and coast
agricultural zones.
• Strengthen the technical capacity to integrate climate-smart agriculture and climate change risk management
into farmer’s and the wider agricultural sector
• Design and implement a Technology Needs Assessment to understand needs of technology transfer and
capacity building
• Increase capacity across sectors to understand climate change risks and adaptation needs
81
Data and Information Gaps
• Develop early warning systems about dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and climate risk management,
specifically for sea level rise, water resources and health impacts
• Improve early warning systems specifically to support the agriculture, livestock and water resources sectors
better prepare for increased aridity and longer dry seasons
• Ensure that nation-wide climate change and early warning systems are maintained, including monitoring
networks at appropriate spatial density and frequency
Institutional Gaps
• Ensure integration of Tunisia’s National Climate Change Strategy goals are developed within sectoral and
regional plans and in line with financial opportunities with donors
• Develop a national monitoring, reporting and verification system
• Support facilitation of energy efficiency options through improved financing options and legal backing for
public-private partnerships
82
• Implement cross-sectoral climate-smart solutions at national and subnational levels for Tunisia’s key sectors
81
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
82
Tunisia (2019). Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/
Synth%C3%A8se%20Ang%20Finalis%C3%A9.pdf
TUNISIA
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE